SUPPORT FOR the Government, the Taoiseach and Fianna Fáil has increased since last autumn, despite one of the toughest budgets in the history of the State, according to the latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll.
However, Fine Gael is also up in the poll and the combined support for the two main Opposition parties is running at 56 per cent, compared to 25 per cent for the two Coalition parties.
The modest recovery in the satisfaction ratings of the Government and the Taoiseach has brought them back to levels last seen in November 2008.
While Fianna Fáil is up two points since the last poll on the eve of the Lisbon Treaty referendum, the Green Party has dropped one point.
Satisfaction with the Government is up five points to 19 per cent, while satisfaction with the performance of Taoiseach Brian Cowen is up three points to 26 per cent.
When people were asked who they would vote for if there were a general election tomorrow, the adjusted figures for party support, compared with the last Irish Timespoll on September 24th last were: Fianna Fáil, 22 per cent (up two points); Fine Gael, 32 per cent (up one point); Labour, 24 per cent (down one point); Sinn Féin, 8 per cent (up one point); Green Party, 3 per cent (down one point); and Independents/ Others, 11 per cent (no change).
The poll was taken on Monday and Tuesday of this week among a representative sample of 1,000 voters aged 18 and over, in face-to-face interviews at 100 sampling points in all 43 constituencies. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 per cent.
The core vote for the parties (before undecided voters are excluded) compared with the last Irish Timespoll was: Fianna Fáil, 20 per cent (up two points); Fine Gael, 24 per cent (up one point); Labour, 17 per cent (down one point); Sinn Féin, 7 per cent (down two points); Green Party, 2 per cent (down one point); Independents/Others, 8 per cent (no change); and undecided voters 22 per cent (up one point).
The modest increase in the Fianna Fáil vote is offset by the decline in support for the Greens, who have slipped back into the negative territory that saw the party almost wiped out in the local elections last June.
The most heartening aspect of the poll from the Government’s perspective is the improvement in its satisfaction rating by five points in the wake of the budget and the bad weather, combined with the continued recovery in the Taoiseach’s ratings.
Fine Gael has retained the substantial lead over Fianna Fáil it first achieved in November 2008. This is the seventh Irish Timespoll in a row to show Fine Gael as the biggest party in the country, and this was reflected in the European and local elections last June.
Labour has remained ahead of Fianna Fáil in the adjusted vote, although it has slipped behind the main Government party in terms of the core vote.
Labour has consolidated its lead as the biggest party in Dublin, although it has slipped back among the best- off AB social category, where Fine Gael is now the leading party.
The Green Party’s share of the vote has dropped back by a point, while satisfaction with the party leader, John Gormley, has gone up two points to 24 per cent.
The improvement in Brian Cowen’s satisfaction rating has come in spite of the fact that a significant 32 per cent of Fianna Fáil voters expressed dissatisfaction with his performance, while 59 per cent of Green supporters are dissatisfied.
Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny’s rating has slipped one point to 31 per cent, but he is still ahead of both Coalition party leaders. Labour leader Eamon Gilmore remains by far the most popular political figure on 45 per cent, with a one point increase since the last poll.
The Sinn Féin vote has dropped back after a rise during the Lisbon Treaty referendum campaign, when it was the only Dáil party campaigning for a No vote.
Satisfaction with party president Gerry Adams is up three points to 31 per cent, in spite of the recent controversy surrounding his handling of child abuse allegations.