ANALYSIS:There's a view out there that an election might cleanse the political system, writes GERRY MORIARTY
BRIAN COWEN and Gordon Brown flew home yesterday and left it to Martin McGuinness and Peter Robinson to demonstrate that they can do grown-up politics, all on their own.
They haven’t done it yet. The Taoiseach and British prime minister gave Robinson and McGuinness until tomorrow to present them with an update on the way forward – which is shorthand for the simple question: are you people capable of doing business together? If they can’t, Cowen and Brown will put together their own best read of what should form a deal, addressing the key issues of policing and justice and parading, but other issues too, such as the Irish language, tackling sectarianism and North-South relations.
It’s conceivable that the Taoiseach and prime minister would return to Hillsborough tomorrow – but only if convinced that Robinson and McGuinness will work the deal. Dublin and London don’t know what the DUP and Sinn Féin leaders will do. Plain logic seems to dictate that it is in the interests of McGuinness and Robinson to avoid premature elections, regardless of the plot to hatch an arrangement between the Ulster Unionists and the DUP to prevent McGuinness taking the First Minister post after a poll.
But some think it is perhaps too late for logic, and that Assembly elections are unfortunate but inevitable.
The problems over transferring policing and justice powers and parading won’t go away after elections, but there’s a view that a poll might cleanse the political system. It’s as bleak as that.
Wisdom and experience tend to indicate that Robinson and McGuinness won’t be able to lead a functioning Executive and Assembly, and that the time and effort of Cowen and Brown will be frustrated and mostly wasted.
McGuinness, before the two leaders gave their press conference at Hillsborough, told a talks session of all the main parties with the Taoiseach and prime minister that he is “willing to be surprised”. The current downbeat mood is that everyone will be surprised if he is surprised.
Yet there is always a glimmer of hope. A senior Northern Ireland official pointed out that British and Irish officials were “singing dirges in the dark” on the Thursday night in St Andrews, yet the following day Rev Ian Paisley indicated he was game for the deal that led to him and McGuinness harmoniously sharing power for a Chuckle Brothers year.
Sinn Féin set out on this negotiating project with a key demand: a date for the devolution of policing and justice. They got that from Cowen and Brown yesterday. The leaders proposed that the Assembly vote in March for the transfer of justice powers in May. In other words, that the parties sign up to the date in March, and in early May the Assembly appoints the minister for justice, expected to be Alliance leader David Ford.
Much of the negotiating this week was around whether the trade-off for devolving policing and justice powers should be the abolition of the Parades Commission, as the DUP was demanding – although Sammy Wilson was also keen to point out that the DUP was not being prescriptive and merely wanted an arrangement that worked.
McGuinness would have questions to answer if he pulled the plug now. Equally, he won’t make any bold moves of acceptance unless Robinson indicates a cast-iron commitment to sign up to some version of the draft proposals.
If Robinson and McGuinness are serious about grown-up politics, they need to talk seriously before tomorrow’s decision day.
A bit of the old Chuckle Brothers’ tonic wouldn’t go amiss.