Leader only buys time, but that's progress of sorts

The Belfast Agreement is an endurance test, but "Oh Lord", the politically prayerful moan, "how long can the signatories endure…

The Belfast Agreement is an endurance test, but "Oh Lord", the politically prayerful moan, "how long can the signatories endure?" Patience, nerve, guile and hope are the watchwords.

From a pro-agreement perspective the best that can be said about Saturday's Ulster Unionist Council meeting was that the No camp was temporarily weakened, David Trimble was strengthened and the agreement lumbers on.

"David Trimble has bought time, that's all," said the anti-agreement Ulster Unionist MP, William Ross, dismissively. But with the monkey of IRA decommissioning still wrapped around the neck of the agreement extra time is progress of sorts.

Finality? Completion? The words don't figure in the Northern Ireland political lexicon. But for David Trimble, at least he has shifted some of his share of the pain on to the shoulders of Gerry Adams, Seamus Mallon, Bertie Ahern, Tony Blair and Gen John de Chastelain.

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We are into a period of multiple recrimination. Republicans complain of unionist duplicity and bad faith and say the IRA was honouring its commitments. "One stinking, lousy phone call to Gen de Chastelain," Ulster Unionist Sir Reg Empey responded.

Sinn Fein talks about "managing its constituency". That's shorthand for doing what has to be done to keep republican doubters and waverers on board the peace process.

What Mr Trimble was doing on Saturday was managing his constituency. And making a hames of it, according to Messrs Mallon and Adams. Mr Trimble's tactic also prompted a black mood in Dublin. Peter Mandelson understood the nationalist concern but warned against the counsel of despair. "If you portray this as a recipe for collapse it could well be a self-fulfilling prophecy," he said.

The British government urged Mr Trimble not to proceed with his strategy. "But he had to be the judge of what he needed to do to survive," said a British insider.

"If Jeffrey Donaldson had won then obviously we were on the road to collapse. This keeps the agreement alive, and gives us time to try and get it sorted," the source said.

"If the IRA in its statement had said without qualification it was going to re-engage with de Chastelain we would not be in this mess. If people are going to start looking to the blame game they better start looking both ways."

Mr Donaldson argues that Yes unionists are moving on to his turf. Yet anti-agreement unionists are suspicious about the Trimble package. They have misgivings about the North-South sanction, where Mr Trimble will refuse to nominate Sinn Fein Ministers to attend cross-Border meetings until the IRA starts talking to the general.

Indeed politics can be played here. The strategies that nationalists adopt to respond to Trimble's strategy will initially determine whether somewhere down the line a solution can be found.

Mr Mallon spoke about the legal implications of the Trimble motion. The first crisis point is Friday when the Sinn Fein Health Minister, Bairbre de Brun, is due to meet her Dublin counterpart, Micheal Martin.

According to the legislation, if there is no agreement between Mr Trimble and Mr Mallon on who should represent the Assembly then the meeting will be cancelled. Of course, Sinn Fein and Mr Mallon could seek a judicial review of any attempt to exclude Ms de Brun from the meeting. Under the agreement, a political review solely relating to the North-South dimension could be initiated.

If Sinn Fein, the SDLP and the Ulster Unionists are prepared to wage this battle on the legal and political margins then the executive, the Assembly and even the cross-Border dimension of the agreement could continue, however unharmoniously.

Another problem here is that Mr Trimble says that if obstacles are put in the way of the North-South sanction then "selected categories" of the North-South Council and the British-Irish Council "will be progressively terminated". But legally can he do that? More opportunities for the lawyers.

Mr Trimble seeks a moratorium on policing but, for the moment at least, the British government has no intention of holding back on its Police Bill.. The British and Irish governments are still in negotiations to try to find a formula on policing that might command cross-community support.

If Mr Trimble doesn't call another Ulster Unionist Council for January then Mr Donaldson will. And this time the Lagan Valley MP is convinced Mr Trimble will be unable to resist a motion to withdraw from the Executive in the absence of IRA product.

He may be calling it right. Nonetheless he was damaged on Saturday. In terms of the internal unionist battle Mr Trimble put it up to the No camp that he is the only credible leader capable of dictating strategy and implementing policy.

He has pointed to the inconsistencies in a grouping where some such as Mr Ross and Mr William Thompson MP don't want to share power with the SDLP, let alone Sinn Fein, while others such as Mr Donaldson now say they want the accord to succeed, but without Sinn Fein in the absence of decommissioning.

"Back Jeffrey or back me as leader" was the implicit message in Mr Trimble's decision to gamble on a vote on Saturday, rather than accede to a compromise. The council backed Trimble. And Mr Trimble - even if he is still making life very difficult for republicans and nationalists - backs the agreement, in his own inimitable way.

The key to a solution may rest with the general. The Ulster Unionist Council motion urges the IRA to engage seriously with the decommissioning body. How the Police Bill concludes, perhaps beefed up with more soldiers heading back to Blighty and more security installations demolished, may determine whether the IRA plays ball.

To carry another council meeting Mr Trimble must be in a position to credibly argue that the IRA is putting its arms beyond use. If he can't, his leadership will be on the line. The last option for the governments may be to initiate a period of review of the agreement, with or without suspension. If that happens, republicans as well as Ulster Unionists must shoulder the blame.

It's frustrating, it's draining, it's dangerously Micawberish, the "something will turn up" syndrome. And maybe, as Mr Donaldson and his allies believe, it is doomed to failure. But from a Yes perspective it's better than the alternative.

This is complex, serious, risky, adult politics. As Mr Ross says it's buying time, but at least the heart of the Belfast Agreement continues to beat.