Opinion poll results published yesterday show a four-to-one majority of decided voters in the North in favour of the Northern Ireland Agreement, but a third of voters still undecided.
Some 52 per cent of respondents in the Sunday Independent/ Ulster Marketing Surveys poll said they would vote for the agreement in the referendum on May 22nd; 13 per cent said they would vote against; 32 per cent said they were undecided; and 3 per cent said they did not intend to vote.
Among Protestants, the margin of support is narrower, and the proportion of undecided voters greater. Some 34 per cent said they would support the agreement; 22 per cent said they would oppose it; 42 per cent were undecided; and 2 per cent said they would not vote. Of Catholics, 78 per cent favoured the deal, 2 per cent were against, 18 per cent undecided and 2 per cent not intending to vote.
The stated voting intentions for the elections to a Northern Assembly show significant SDLP gains from Sinn Fein. However, opinion polls regularly underestimate Sinn Fein's support.
Party figures (excluding Don't Knows and with the May 1996 forum-election totals in brackets) are: SDLP 28 per cent (21.4); UUP 23 per cent (24.7); DUP 15 per cent (18.8); Sinn Fein 11 per cent (15.5); Alliance 7 per cent (6.5); PUP 6 per cent (3.5); UDP 3 per cent (2.2); UKUP 3 per cent (3.7); Women's Coalition 1 per cent (1); others 3 per cent (2.7).
The survey was carried out on a sample of 1,147 adults at 50 locations throughout the North.