Kenyans in grip of election fever as opposition leader is tipped to succeed Moi

Declan Walsh , in Nairobi, reports on what could be a new awakening for the country's democracy.

Declan Walsh, in Nairobi, reports on what could be a new awakening for the country's democracy.

Kenyans go to the polls today for an historic election to choose a successor to Mr Daniel arap Moi, their famously wily ruler of 24 years and one of Africa's last "Big Man" leaders.

Opposition leader Mr Mwai Kibaki of the National Rainbow Coalition (Narc) is widely tipped for victory over President Moi's candidate, Mr Uhuru Kenyatta, who is representing the ruling Kanu party.

Mr Kibaki's National Rainbow Coalition (Narc) is riding high on a wave of popular hostility towards Moi and Kanu, which have presided over the steady, corruption-fuelled slide of one of Africa's most promising nations.

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Excited by the possibility of change, Kenyans are in the grip of election fever. Despite some violence, campaigning has been largely peaceful. Voter turnout of up to 80 per cent was predicted, with many voters using the Christmas holiday to make sure they are at home, near their polling stations.

In some cases the politicking has gone to extreme lengths. On Monday an elderly woman caused panic in a passenger bus when her three-metre python escaped from a box. She said the snake had magical properties that would help elect her brother in the country's civic elections, the Daily Nation reported. But enthusiasm for the poll has been tempered with some nervous tension.

Allegations of vote rigging have surfaced. Candidates from both sides have been attacked by stones, sticks, arrows and even guns. On Christmas night three men were shot dead in a bus coming from an opposition stronghold. The police denied allegations they were responsible.

The violence cuts both ways - last weekend Kanu candidate Mrs Dorcas Wambui lost her husband and children to a vicious arson attack on their house.

Although violence levels are low compared to previous polls - when up to 2,000 people died in politically manipulated tribal clashes - Amnesty International said it fears some Kenyans may be deprived of their vote.

The poll appears to signal a revolution in Kenya's complex tribal politics.

Both of the main candidates are from the Kikuyu, the largest tribe. However, Mr Kibaki (71), has forged a powerful cross-tribal alliance that has severely curtailed support for his opponent, who is 30 years his junior.

It is Mr Kibaki's third attempt - he came second to Mr Moi in both 1997 and 1992. Before the advent of multi-party politics, he served as Moi's vice-president for a decade until 1988.

Both candidates promise that they will revitalise the economy and tackle the infamous corruption problem - Kenya rates as the world's sixth most corrupt country according to Transparency International - but both have compromised credentials.

Mr Kenyatta is tainted by support from some of the most shadowy figures of the Moi era, prompting opposition accusations that in power he would be a Moi puppet.

And while Mr Kibaki favours a declaration of wealth by all public representatives, he is unlikely to seek justice for past crimes - some of the most senior Narc figures were Moi ministers until just a few months ago, when they defected to the opposition.

In the final days of campaigning Kanu has shamelessly used the machinery of state to favour Mr Kenyatta. The state KBC television, which has given blanket coverage to his campaign, refused to carry Narc advertisements.

There have also been allegations of attempted vote rigging, mostly perpetrated by Kanu supporters. But some observers think it may be too late to decisively influence the vote.

"Polling will not be perfect, it never is. I think people on both sides plan to do bad things," said one western diplomat. "But it looks like a decisive victory - and it's difficult to rig your way out of a landslide." If it passes off successfully, this election could signal a coming of age for Kenyan democracy. An intensive campaign of civic education and a sharply critical private media have raised the election debate to new heights.

Before the 1992 and 1997 elections Kitale, five hours north of Nairobi, was rocked by tribal clashes. This time campaigning has been largely peaceful.

"People are very calm," said Fr Gabriel Dolan, an Irish cleric and human rights worker in Kitale. "They have decided what they want, now they just want to vote and get it over with."