ANALYSIS:Some Republicans are still hoping for an 'October surprise' to turn the race around, writes Denis Staunton
AT THE end of Wednesday's presidential debate at Hofstra University, John McCain's handlers were confident that their man had won the night, remaining on the offensive for most of its 90 minutes and highlighting in clear terms the contrasts between the two men's economic policies.
Campaign spokesman Tucker Bounds predicted that the polls would tighten in the next few days as the race finally turns around in McCain's favour.
"Absolutely it's going to change because we've a great closing argument and you heard it tonight," he said. "In the world of politics, in the world of the 30-second news cycle, 20 days is a long time."
The audience at Hofstra didn't see, however, what millions of television viewers saw - split-screen close-ups that showed Barack Obama calm and smiling most of the time while McCain fidgeted, scowled or glared at his opponent with unconcealed contempt.
This was the Republican's best performance of the three debates and he was sharper, more focused and more effective in putting Obama on the defensive than before.
In the story of "Joe the Plumber", an Ohio voter who is worried about the Democrat's tax plans, McCain found an eloquent parable to explain the differences in the two candidates' approach to the economy.
He portrayed Obama as a big government liberal (even referring to him once by mistake as Senator Government) intent on redistributing wealth, a concept the Republican suggested was incompatible with the American dream.
Throughout the attacks, however, Obama remained serene, chuckling quietly from time to time as McCain painted him as a reckless radical. The Democrat offered a brief and incomplete account of his relationship with former urban guerrilla William Ayers that was nonetheless plausible and reassuring.
McCain's strongest claim to the White House is that he has the experience and strength of character to lead his country through troubled times. But since the global economic meltdown began in earnest last month, it is Obama who has seemed to have the steadier hand, while McCain appears increasingly desperate and unpredictable.
Maryland governor Martin O'Malley believes that the debates have allowed voters to compare the candidates' temperaments in a way that only flatters Obama.
"His lead has increased with each passing debate, because with each debate I think the American people have become more comfortable with him and I believe that between the two men, he just appears more presidential, man to man, just less angry, less erratic," O'Malley said. "When you have to face the unprecedented challenges we're facing, the war in Iraq, the war in Afghanistan and these economic challenges, you look at which of these two men best represent a stronger future for our country and I think Senator Obama has projected that very well in these debates."
"Joe the Plumber" has helped McCain to find his voice on the economy as he argues that cutting business taxes will not only benefit big corporations, but will also help the small businesses that create most new jobs in the US.
"Joe" may have arrived too late, however, as voters seem increasingly reluctant to listen to any Republican prescription for their economic troubles.
Both campaigns expect the polls to tighten in the coming days and Obama has warned his supporters against over-confidence, reminding them that polls put him far ahead in New Hampshire in January before Hillary Clinton's surprise victory in the state's primary.
McCain was campaigning in Pennsylvania yesterday but for the most part, the presidential battle is now being fought in states George Bush won in 2004.
McCain's most optimistic supporters acknowledge that Obama is almost certain to pick off two states - Iowa and New Mexico - that Bush won last time.
Republican efforts are now focused almost exclusively on defending six states - Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina and Nevada. McCain must win all of these if he is to scrape past the 270 electoral votes he needs to win the election, and today, Obama is ahead in most of them.
Obama is running more television ads, has more staff and more offices in all the battleground states, and the Democratic campaign is far better organised than its Republican counterpart.
The most optimistic scenario for McCain would see the polls tightening by early next week to the point where he appears to be within striking distance of Obama, helping to energise the Republican base in advance of a final push before November 4th.
Some Republicans are still hoping for an "October surprise" in the shape of a personal scandal, a national security event or the capture of Osama bin Laden.
The October surprise may have come early this year, however, in late September when Wall Street imploded, Washington panicked and American voters decided that any agent of change was a better option than putting another Republican into the White House at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.