The IRA is expected to respond to demands that it go away. Will it give unambiguous answers? Mark Brennock assesses the prospects
The IRA answer to Gerry Adams's request that it embrace politics and abandon violence forever is expected this month.
The Taoiseach told the Dáil last week that the two governments expected an IRA answer "prior to the holiday break in August".
It is almost three months since Mr Adams made his public "appeal" after a period of unprecedented pressure from the Irish and British governments.
Speculation is ongoing now over what the IRA statement will say, whether it will be a simple, clear statement, or whether it will be partial, perhaps involving a formula of words that is open to interpretation.
And while the words will be crucial, the actions that follow will also be. Again, there is speculation over whether there will be a full and transparent putting beyond use of all IRA weapons.
Will there be a timetable for such a process? Will there be some means of verification, either photographs or some other mechanism?
The months that have passed since the failed talks last December - and the Northern Bank robbery of the same month - may have dulled memories of the clarity of what the two governments said was required.
Back then it was made clear that there was no room for fudge any more. Tortured prose would not work, and partial gestures would be worthless.
The Taoiseach repeated this in the Dáil recently: "To move forward we need a clear, unambiguous end to all paramilitary and criminal activity and the completion of decommissioning."
Amid fears that the IRA response may not be what is required, he added: "Dr Paisley made it clear that he is only interested in actions, not just words, and the Irish Government shares that view.
"I assured Dr Paisley and his colleagues that we also want the IRA response to be conclusive and decisive.
"We also said to the DUP that if we see the actions that are required, both governments will expect unionists to participate in fully inclusive partnership politics in Northern Ireland, recognising that regaining confidence and trust will inevitably take some time."
The proposed agreement that was not accepted on December 8th would indeed have been "conclusive and decisive".
It would have seen the IRA decommission all weapons by the end of that month "in a way which further enhances public confidence". The IRA would instruct its members not to endanger the agreement. The de Chastelain Commission would confirm decommissioning had taken place, and photographs taken would be shown to the governments and parties, and made public later.
The DUP would agree to work in an inclusive executive; Sinn Féin would agree to hold an ard-fheis to decide on its support for new policing arrangements; a shadow assembly would have been set up last January; a committee would work on a policing agreement.
The suspension of the Assembly would have been lifted in February; the new first and deputy first minister would have been confirmed by the assembly in March; and Britain would have enacted legislation for the devolution of criminal justice and policing around now.
These elements were announced by Bertie Ahern and Tony Blair on December 8th, after the talks collapsed.
Both men said the only issue now presenting a difficulty was the dispute over whether photographs of decommissioning should be taken and published.
However, the following day the PD parliamentary party declared that a second point was now the "key issue" blocking a deal. This was the IRA's failure so far to sign up to a commitment not to engage in criminal activity.
The party revealed that a proposed IRA declaration not to endanger anyone's personal safety "is the key to the agreement", and that the IRA had refused to sign up to this.
This would have said the IRA "recognised the need to uphold and not to endanger anyone's personal rights and safety".
Michael McDowell led the Government's elucidation of the position that a "no criminality" commitment was vital if there was to be any progress.
Then along came the Northern Bank robbery to illustrate his point. From mid-January the Taoiseach and Mr McDowell made a sustained onslaught on Sinn Féin and the IRA. They asserted that the IRA robbed the Northern Bank, and that the Sinn Féin leadership knew about it beforehand.
They made the simple demand that the IRA end all paramilitary and criminal activity, and sign up to an unequivocal pledge to stay away from such behaviour.
So the demand of the two governments is simple: the IRA must announce that it has ended all paramilitary and criminal activity for good, and it must put all of its weapons beyond use in a way which is verifiable and acceptable to all parties.