A new set of EU projections shows that Ireland will massively overshoot its Kyoto Protocol target to curb greenhouse gas emissions - unless much stronger measures are taken - thus running the risk of having to pay hundreds of millions of euro in penalties.
"Without additional measures, it looks like Ireland will be almost 16 per cent off the target set for reducing its carbon emissions by 2010. In fact, only three other member states will probably perform worse: Spain, Portugal and Greece," the European Commission said.
The commission issued its statement after the European Environment Agency (EEA) published projections showing that Ireland is one of seven EU member states which are "not on track" to meet their Kyoto targets for curbing the emissions blamed for causing climate change.
The agency said all EU member states "must seriously tackle greenhouse gas emissions immediately" - otherwise the EU will fail to meet its collective target under the protocol of reducing these emissions by 8 per cent (based on 1990 levels) before 2012.
Without additional measures, the commission said Ireland's emissions were likely to rise by more than 29 per cent - or 16 points higher than the Kyoto target which the Government accepted in 1998. This required Ireland to cap the rise in its emissions at 13 per cent.
Minister for the Environment Dick Roche sought yesterday to suggest that further steps being planned by the Government would help to bridge the gap. These included increasing the use of renewable energy in electricity generation and tougher building regulations.
Mr Roche said it was no secret Ireland would have to take additional measures, which would also include a major expansion of excise relief for biofuels in the Budget for 2007. Transport is one of the fastest growing contributors to the rise in greenhouse gas emissions.
EU Environment Commissioner Stavros Dimas called on all member states to pull their weight.
"Those that are not on track urgently need to step up efforts to meet their targets, if necessary by taking further national measures to reduce emissions," he said in a statement.
"Only if national allocation plans [ for carbon dioxide emissions from power stations and industry] for the second period of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme are ambitious enough will each member state be able to achieve its Kyoto obligations," Mr Dimas said.
The commission's warning came as a 700-page report by chief British government economist Nicholas Stern, due to be published today, will warn that ignoring climate change could lead to economic upheaval on the scale of the 1930s Depression.
The report, compiled by Sir Nicholas, a former World Bank chief economist, will say that no matter what is done now, the chances of keeping greenhouse gases at a level which scientists say would avoid the worst effects of climate change "is already almost out of reach".
However, Mr Roche insists that Ireland will meet its Koyto target.
"It is unfortunate that the commission . . . does not acknowledge the greenhouse gas emissions reductions that will be made by Irish installations participating in the EU emissions trading scheme."
Fine Gael environment spokesman Fergus O'Dowd TD said it was clear that our carbon emissions were way above what they should be, and that a "big change" in transport policy was required in tandem with the implementation of the National Spatial Strategy.
"All of us need to change our behaviour. That will involve a range of measures including an increase in VRT on the big gas-guzzlers, except where people need them for work. We also have to develop more local initiatives with each local authority coming up with an emissions plan".
Green Party environment spokesman Ciarán Cuffe TD said it was up to the Government to take the lead in promoting policies to limit emissions. "We need more than hot air and platitudes from the Minister for the Environment - we need action," he said.
In Britain "green taxes" have been proposed to tackle climate change.