This week's IRA statement on decommissioning marked "a step forward by republicans", Ulster Unionist Party leader Mr David Trimble conceded yesterday. However, it fell short of the start of decommissioning which his party needed.
"We have no alternative but to say to the republican movement, `It is time you did the business,' " he said, after a meeting of his party's Westminster and Assembly members. The UUP leader said his party had twice entered government with Sinn Fein without decommissioning and would not make the same mistake again.
Senior Ulster Unionist sources have said that only significant movement from the IRA on decommissioning within the next 24 hours could prevent the peace process from falling deeper into crisis.
There was speculation among pro-agreement parties last night that the IRA might issue a statement today or early tomorrow reiterating its commitment to dealing with the arms issue. However, pro-agreement UUP sources expressed concern that it would not go far enough.
"It will have to say that there has been a verifiable start to decommissioning. It will have to give details of when and how this took place. And these facts will have to be supported in a follow-up statement from Gen de Chastelain's decommissioning body," one source said.
"This is what David Trimble needs if he is to even begin to sell returning to government with Sinn Fein to our party."
It now appears increasingly likely that the Northern Secretary, Dr John Reid, will suspend the Assembly rather than call fresh elections. Saturday is the deadline for the Assembly meeting to elect a new first and deputy first minister. Members would have to be given 48 hours' notice, so there must be political progress by tomorrow afternoon at the latest if suspension is to be avoided.
There is speculation that Dr Reid will choose to use a legal loophole allowing him to order a one-day suspension of the Assembly, which would then give the parties six weeks to reach a new agreement.
Sinn Fein MP Mr Martin McGuinness claimed Mr Trimble had made a serious error of judgment in not acknowledging the significance of the IRA's offer. "Of all the mistakes made throughout the course of the last three years in the Good Friday agreement process, what David Trimble has done in rejecting the determination of the International Independent Commission on Decommissioning is the greatest mistake of all," he said.
The UUP, Sinn Fein, and the SDLP have all refused to endorse fully the British and Irish governments' proposals to end the political deadlock. The proposals have so far been accepted by only the Alliance Party and the Women's Coalition.
The SDLP deputy leader, Mr Seamus Mallon, said that while many of the governments' proposals were positive, his party could not fully endorse them until it had seen the implementation plan for policing.
A half-hour briefing from Dr Reid was inadequate, he said. "I wouldn't buy a house on those conditions, I wouldn't buy a motor car on those conditions, I wouldn't even buy my lunch on those conditions."
Mr Trimble condemned the SDLP's refusal to sign up to the new police service. "I am deeply disappointed by the SDLP's position, which is wholly inadequate. This is not the way in which a serious political party should behave," he said.
Mr Trimble, who met Gen de Chastelain yesterday, refused to be drawn on plans for suspending the Assembly but said the chosen course of action must ensure the minimum damage to the peace process.