GARDAI believe the IRA is reorganising its operations following a succession of arms finds by security forces here and in Britain.
In the latest find, a rocket launcher and assorted high calibre ammunition were recovered in the Fane river near Dundalk, yesterday morning. In a follow up search of the river yesterday, gardai recovered another 700 to 750 bullets and a number of live shot gun cartridges. However, gardai say the weapon and ammunition may have been there, before the IRA ceasefire began.
According to senior Garda sources, there is no indication of a renewal of the IRA ceasefire, and hardline elements in the republican movement appear to have control of the organisation. There had been speculation, up to July, that the IRA would resume its ceasefire to allow Sinn Fein into talks.
However, hopes of a resumed ceasefire appear to have diminished as it emerges that the IRA is being controlled by elements dedicated to the "armed struggle".
Garda sources say the fact that no attacks have been claimed by the IRA since the mortar attack on a British army base in Osnabruck, Germany, at the end of June has more to do with the fact "that the security forces have scored a series of major successes against the organisation.
According to both Garda and RUC sources, the IRA is engaged in an internal review to try to find out how the security forces breached its security and made major arms and explosives finds in Co Laois and London. An IRA campaign against British military targets on the Continent has also, apparently, been nipped in the bud.
However, there are indications that the IRA is almost certainly reorganising and regrouping with a view to further attacks.
The shoulder mounted rocket launcher, along with 400 rounds of ammunition, found yesterday in the river Fane at Lurgan Green, approximately three miles south of Dundalk, had been in the water for some time and may have been dislodged from an underground hide on the river bank.
Gardai from Dundalk had been carrying out searches of the locality in recent days. The RPG7 rocket launcher was found on Tuesday evening and a further search of the river yesterday morning led to the recovery of the ammunition.
The searches followed the arrest of three men with Dundalk, addresses in the UK, according to local Garda sources.
The launcher and ammunition had been placed in small plastic packages and wrapped in brown tape. It is believed they may have been hidden underneath a bridge over the river and were dislodged, by heavy rain earlier this week. "They may have been there prior to the ceasefire," said a senior garda.
The ammunition included rounds for Kalashnikov rifles, Armalites, a .45 revolver and an Uzi submachine gun. The rocket launcher is believed to have been, badly corroded by the water.
Gardai say it was also possible, the arms might have been thrown over the bridge from a passing vehicle as it approached a Garda checkpoint.
The arms are almost certainly the property of the IRA, according to gardai. The IRA's "quarter master general", a figure understood to be opposed to a ceasefire, lives only a few miles from the scene of yesterday's arms find.
This man is said to be closely associated with a Co Tyrone man living in Co Monaghan who is the IRA "chief of staff", a figure said to be implacably, opposed to renewing the ceasefire.