Delay in reopening indoor dining ‘will not stop rise in cases’ - expert

A two-week delay in opening up indoor dining and hospitality “is not going to stop the inevitable rise in variants or have a significant impact on vaccination of young people”, according to an infectious diseases consultant.

“There will always be a risk, and at some point we’re going to have to test the waters,” Prof Paddy Mallon said.

“If we’re going to wait for young people to be vaccinated that’s not going to happen this side of the summer.”

He was speaking as Taoiseach Micheál Martin confirmed the Cabinet would meet early this week to make a decision on potentially delaying the next phase of reopening.

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Under the Government’s plan, indoor dining is due to resume from July 5th, while 50 people would be allowed to attend a wedding, and four households would be allowed gather indoors. The threat of the more infectious Delta variant, however, could see this delayed.

Mr Martin said he would be talking to the other party leaders, Leo Varadkar and Eamon Ryan, on Sunday evening ahead of a Cabinet decision early this week.

Speaking on Sunday afternoon, Mr Ryan said if there was a delay in fully re-opening the hospitality sector “it might make sense” for the date to be moved to July 19th when the digital green certificate travel system starts.

However, Mr Ryan said “one of the things we won’t be doing is stop starting, starting again and then stopping again.

“So, when we reopen we want to keep it open. If there is a short delay, and it’s only ‘if’, and it would only be - in my mind - a short delay, we will give information on that quickly,” he told RTÉ’s This Week programme.

Asked on Sunday whether the Government should delay reopening indoor dining, Dr Mallon said: “Whether the 60 to 70 years olds are fully vaccinated or not is not going to have an impact on the rise in the cases.

‘Can’t have both ways’

“The rise in cases is going to be driven by the unvaccinated. If we’re going to make a decisions we need to be honest about what impacts that will have,” he told RTÉ Radio 1’s Brendan O’Connor show.

“You can’t have it both ways. You can’t say ‘we’re going to wait two weeks’ as if two weeks is going to have a huge impact and everything is going to be okay.

“The two weeks is not going to stop the rise in cases or have a significant impact on younger unvaccinated people,” Prof Mallon said. “It’s inevitable that cases will go up. They may go up a lot.”

The Restaurants Association of Ireland described Dr Mallon’s comments as “highly significant” as public health officials consider recommending a pause in the State’s reopening plan due to the threat posed by the Delta variant.

In a statement, the association said: “those in decision-making positions are embarking on a critical week. The decisions they are about to take will impact the lives and livelihoods of thousands of people.

“The severity and sacrifices of the past 16 months will have been for nothing unless we make a measured, informed, and sequential return to everyday life. The Government’s existing plan provides for that. The vaccine programme is doing its job. Those of us in hospitality are ready for a safe return to indoor dining,” the statement said.

“Dr Mallon’s insight this morning warrants pause for thought for everyone. We urge those in Government to give Dr Mallon’s comments meaningful consideration.”

Speaking on RTÉ’s The Week in Politics, the Taoiseach said the Cabinet would be making a decision “early in the week” on whether to go ahead with the July 5th restart date.

“There are a number of factors here, the chief medical officer wrote to the Niac [National Immunisation Advisory Committee] in respect of the AstraZeneca and Janssen vaccines; there will be a surplus in the latter part of July and August, and whether they could be used for younger age cohorts, that is an important factor.”

‘The risk is different’

The Taoiseach said he wanted to have those advices to hand before making any decisions.

“The calculus is different, the risk is different, 2.5 million people have been fully vaccinated.”

Mr Martin said he did not want to interfere with the deliberations of Niac, but he said a substantial number of vaccines will become available that could not be currently used under existing guidelines.

The State’s public health team will also factor the Niac advice into their deliberations early this week, Mr Martin said.

In relation to international travel, Mr Martin said the plan is still to proceed with the EU travel cert from July 19th, although he said they would also take into account any National Public Health Emergency Team advice.

In relation to pandemic spending, the Taoiseach said a summer economic statement will be published in the coming weeks.

He said “over time” the Government must reduce the deficit. “The continuation of the current policies are extremely important, that we don’t cut off the recovery while it is happening.”

On the issue of AstraZeneca vaccines, Mr Ryan said regardless of Niac’s recommendation the 400,000 doses soon to be available would not go to waste.

The Minister said the State was involved in an international programme “to get every country, every part of the world vaccinated.

“There will be no vaccines going to waste, no vaccines held back or stored or not used,” Mr Ryan said.