Hague's survival as leader moves centre-stage

A staggering 53 per cent of voters dislike him. Even more - 58 per cent - dislike his policies

A staggering 53 per cent of voters dislike him. Even more - 58 per cent - dislike his policies. Yet Mr William Hague might take his party to disaster this week and still retain his job as leader of the Conservative Party.

This was the unpalatable fare served up by Britain's Sunday papers yesterday as Mr Hague prepared for Breakfast with Frost on the BBC. Another day, another defiant dismissal of the polls.

There was still everything to play for. He was still fighting to win. And no, he did not believe plotters to the right and left of him were preparing to tear his party - and his leadership - asunder on the morning after Mr Tony Blair's predicted landslide.

Perhaps Mr Hague knows something the rest of us don't. Perhaps, come Friday, an army of discredited pollsters and pundits will be seeking gainful employment. But as of this weekend the settled view at Westminster was reflected in press enthusiasm to look beyond polling day to the two stories expected to dominate next weekend's headlines. Who gets what job in Mr Blair's cabinet reshuffle? And what becomes of Mr Hague? Three polls yesterday disagreed only about the likely scale of Labour's projected second-term majority. Mori for the Sunday Telegraph remained somewhat out of kilter with the others - showing the Conservatives, on 27 per cent, a staggering 23 points behind Labour on 50 per cent. Translated into an actual result on Thursday that would see Mr Blair's present 179-seat Commons majority leap to something around 253.

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NOP for the Sunday Times showed a slight narrowing of Labour's lead (to 17 points) - but still good enough to give Mr Blair an increased majority of 217.

ICM for the Observer gave the Conservatives their highest percentage share of the vote since the election campaign began - at 34 per cent just 12 points behind Labour. Those figures pointed to a Blair majority of around 170.

However, the bad news here for Mr Hague was ICM's finding that two-thirds of Labour voters are prepared to vote tactically for the Liberal Democrats where they are best-placed to defeat the Tory candidate. If that were to happen on the day, the Conservatives could lose up to 20 seats.

Conservative Central Office sources continue to insist that canvass returns, for example in key areas like the Midlands, point to a better-than-last-time response to Tory candidates on the doorsteps. They have no doubt that Lady Thatcher's presence on the hustings will have boosted Mr Hague's bid to reconnect with "core" Tory voters who defected or stayed at home in 1997. And far from being a sign of panic, the insistence is that the last gasp invitation to "burst Mr Blair's bubble" is part of a carefully planned final pitch against an "over-mighty" government.

However, Mr Hague's gambit was inevitably seen as a desperate bid to avert total catastrophe on Thursday, and to hang on to his job thereafter. In that context, his supporters will have focused sharply on the predictions of professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher of Plymouth University's Elections Centre for a Labour landslide, but on a reduced majority of 147 seats.

Conventional wisdom has had it until now that Mr Hague needs to slash Mr Blair's majority to at least 90 to stave off a post-election leadership challenge.

However, the notion is gaining currency that, so low are expectations now, even a modest achievement of that order might be enough to bolster Mr Hague's grip on the leadership.

The only other crumb of comfort on offer yesterday was a suggestion that Mr Michael Portillo might wish to postpone a leadership bid - until after the defeat some Tories now think possible in a referendum on the euro. Cold comfort indeed.