Growth of the economy may be a key factor in falling crime

As though it needed another reason to celebrate, the Government this week saw crime rates fall by almost 8 per cent in the first six months of the year.

Coming after a 16 per cent drop over the previous two years, the trend, if continued, will lead to the lowest annual rate of crime since 1980.

The Minister for Justice, Mr O'Donoghue, hailed it as a victory for his zero-tolerance policy platform, while also praising the "spectacularly successful" efforts of the Garda.

More back-slapping can be expected at the publication later this week of the official crime report for 1998, which will confirm the downward trend in crime figures which began four years ago.

But to what extent, if any, does the Government deserve credit for this happy situation?

Criminologists are far from certain that policy changes have contributed to the drop in crime rates. Instead explanations centre on economic growth, with additional factors ranging from demographic changes to community-based initiatives.

"The short answer is that no one knows exactly what's behind it although we can say with some certainly what's not behind it," said Mr Ciaran McCullagh, a sociology lecturer at University College Cork.

"It can't be said to be the result of drugs policing because, despite some significant Garda seizures, the supply of drugs does not seem to have gone down. It does not seem to be the result of zero tolerance either, in the meaning of clamping down on petty crime, because that has not really happened.

"It's not due to the bail referendum because that has not come into force yet, and it's not due to the increase in prison places because crime rates had already begun to fall before they were introduced."

His views were echoed by Prof Dermot Walsh, of the Centre for Criminal Justice at the University of Limerick.

"I don't go along with the interpretation that it's essentially down to changes in policing or criminal procedures law, or initiatives like the establishment of the Criminal Assets Bureau. Those measures are aimed at serious financial crime. What we've seen, however, is a major fall-off in petty offences like burglaries and larcenies while serious crime figures have only stabilised."

"The most important factor would seem to be the improvement in the economic environment and the rise in employment. In better times, there is less reason for petty offending and fewer young people who will look to crime as a means of income."

He said the Government's bail and prison reforms were geared towards helping the system to cope with more criminals rather than reduce crime. Moreover, zero tolerance policing should lead to a rise rather than fall in crime and, therefore, it could not be cited as an explanation for the downward trend.

More valid reasons for the falloff, said Prof Walsh, were the expansion of the Garda's early-intervention juvenile liaison scheme and the work of community groups like Neighbourhood Watch.

Prof Ivana Bacik, Reid Professor of Criminal Law at Trinity College Dublin, also cited economic growth as a major factor, along with community-based anti-drugs initiatives. However, she stressed that "crime figures fluctuate".

Prof John Brewer, a sociology lecturer at Queen's University Belfast, also warned that "historically, there have been periods when crime has fallen only to march back upwards again".

The recent drop cannot hide the fact that current crime rates remain about six times higher than those of the 1950s. Nevertheless, said Prof Brewer, some recent positive factors could be identified, primarily economic prosperity.

"With fewer people on the margins or out of work there are fewer people for whom crime is a rational economic choice."

The expansion of methadone-treatment programmes had also helped to reduce the need for heroin users to engage in crime.

The number of people receiving methadone from the Eastern Health Board had increased from 1,861 in 1996, to 3,971 at the beginning of last month. This had been the biggest factor in reducing crime, said Mr Tony Geoghegan, co-ordinator of the Merchant's Quay drug rehabilitation project in Dublin.

"Enforcement has not really been that effective because, as long as there is a demand for heroin, there will always be dealers, but by increasing accessibility to methadone, you can reduce the demand."

However, Prof Brewer said enforcement has played its part, particularly initiatives such as Operation Cleanstreets under which small street dealers have been targeted.

He said because Dublin had the highest concentration of crime, "a particular push by the Garda in a particular area can have a disproportionate effect on the overall crime figures".