A number of Fianna Fáil seats north of the Liffey now look even more vulnerable, writes Stephen Collins, Political Correspondent.
The Taoiseach's unpopular mini-reshuffle turned into a political embarrassment yesterday as Seán Haughey made a dignified protest at his treatment and said he intended to reflect on his future in politics. Another northside Dublin TD, Pat Carey, expressed his unhappiness at the way Mr Ahern had handled the matter.
Instead of dying down after 24 hours, as the Taoiseach and his advisers had hoped, the controversy escalated with the decision of Mr Haughey and Mr Carey to go public and express their disappointment at the way Mr Ahern had handled the matter.
Another TD from Dublin North, Jim Glennon, had already expressed his disappointment a day earlier.
Mr Ahern's decision to promote Meath TD Mary Wallace to the ministerial vacancy, which was created by the resignation of Dublin North Central TD Ivor Callely, caused real bafflement in the Fianna Fáil parliamentary party on Tuesday.
More significantly, however, it was clear yesterday that the decision has resulted in deep anger among Fianna Fáil members and supporters on the northside of Dublin. Phone calls, e-mails and text messages expressing resentment at the decision were received by local radio stations.
Seán Haughey broke his silence on the controversy in an interview with Seán O'Rourke on RTÉ's News At One yesterday, in which he spoke about his hurt at the way he had been treated and revealed that the Taoiseach had not spoken to him about the issue at any stage.
"I certainly had it from sources close to the Taoiseach that I was in line for promotion so it was a disappointment yesterday when the announcement was made," said Mr Haughey, who revealed he had sought a meeting with the Taoiseach shortly after Ivor Callely had resigned but that the meeting never happened.
"I certainly have talked to people quite close to him who were all congratulating me, actually, over the past couple of weeks," said Mr Haughey, who added that media speculation about his likely promotion could have been stopped by Mr Ahern at any time over the past two months.
The implications for Fianna Fáil on Dublin's northside are potentially serious. The Taoiseach is now the only member of the Cabinet in the capital who lives north of the Liffey and the only Minister of State on the northside is his brother, Noel.
The northside has traditionally been the Fianna Fáil heartland in Dublin. The party also did well in the more middle-class southside last time around, but voters in that part of Dublin have always been regarded as more volatile.
The southside now has two Fianna Fáil Cabinet Ministers in Séamus Brennan and Mary Hanafin and two PD Ministers in Mary Harney and Michael McDowell. On top of that, the Government chief whip, Tom Kitt, and the Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Conor Lenihan, represent southside areas.
Fianna Fáil did well among middle-class voters in 2002 and party strategists are hoping that the high level of ministerial representation on Dublin's southside will help them repeat the performance next time around. However, there was clear evidence in the local elections in 2002 that the party is vulnerable to attack in different parts of Dublin from Labour, Sinn Féin and Fine Gael.
Fianna Fáil's performance in Dublin city wards was atrocious and the party dropped from 20 seats to 12 on the city council. There were a number of wards where Fianna Fáil did not win even one council seat.
The Taoiseach's decision not to appoint Seán Haughey has fuelled the perception that the party is ignoring the northside and that could serve to reinforce the image of the party as having lost touch with its roots.
Fianna Fáil strategists are hoping the snub to Mr Haughey, as well as Ivor Callely's misfortune, will serve to deliver a huge sympathy vote that will elect both men in Dublin North Central. With the number of seats in the constituency reduced from four to three, the party faces a big battle to retain both its TDs. Fine Gael's Richard Bruton and Independent Finian McGrath are also TDs in the constituency, so one sitting TD is bound to lose a seat.
In Dublin North East, Michael Woods and Martin Brady will be hard pressed to hold two out of three, while in Dublin North West the same applies to Noel Ahern and Pat Carey.
In Dublin North the decision of GV Wright not to run again means the party could struggle to hold two out of four, while in Dublin Central the Taoiseach will be under pressure to bring in a running mate.
There are five very vulnerable Fianna Fáil seats on Dublin's northside. The Taoiseach's decision to give a junior ministry to Meath, rather than to someone in his own backyard, could ultimately cost the party dearly.