This survey, conducted on Monday, is the seventh since the present Coalition Government took office on June 26th, 1997, almost two years ago. The political honeymoon, during which the personal ratings of the Taoiseach and Tanaiste and Fianna Fail support remained exceptionally high, lasted for 20 months, until February of this year.
At that juncture, however, when the last Irish Times/MRBI poll was published, Government ratings had dropped by a massive 16 points; those for the Taoiseach were down 11 and Fianna Fail net support had also declined by eight points. That was three months ago, and today's figures, for reasons which are evident in the survey, show a further drop in satisfaction levels in a number of crucial areas.
In terms of perception of his personal impact as Taoiseach, Mr Ahern's satisfaction rating has declined by a further 12 points to 58 per cent, while the Government is now rated satisfactory by 51 per cent - its lowest impact since the general election. Ratings for the other three main party leaders, including the Tanaiste, remain relatively stable. The drop of two points in Fianna Fail support to 46 per cent is politically rather than statistically significant, since both the Labour Party and the Progressive Democrats have each benefited marginally as a result.
In general terms, looking back over the two-year life-span of the Government to date, its members will have experienced extremes of both delight and even despair as the political circumstances developed. Delight and satisfaction came in year one, emanating from the signing of the Good Friday Agreement in April 1998. Over the six months which followed, Government satisfaction ratings remained at an all-time high (6873 per cent); over 80 per cent were satisfied with Mr Ahern as Taoiseach, and 57 per cent supported Fianna Fail.
The political shadows which have characterised the Government's second year in office are, if anything, getting darker, and today's figures represent the Taoiseach's lowest impact since he was appointed. Fianna Fail net support at 46 per cent is also the party's lowest level since the general election, and the survey identifies some of the reasons for this.
In the first instance, a considerable majority - seven electors in every 10 - are dissatisfied with the manner in which the Government has handled the Sheedy affair (Table C). This increases to 76 per cent in Dublin and, perhaps more significantly, among Fianna Fail supporters, 62 per cent are dissatisfied with this situation.
Almost eight in every 10 nationally - and more than seven in 10 Fianna Fail supporters - do not believe the public has been fully informed of what happened in the Sheedy affair. The well-established marketing axiom of always meeting stated expectations is not perceived to have been delivered on and the oft-quoted principle of transparency is now very much in the minds of the electorate.
In answer to the question as to whether electors felt the Government would survive until the end of the year, a majority (55 per cent) were positive in this respect. While the viewpoint was well supported across all demographic and party support groups, it possibly also reflects public reaction to the prospect of a general election. In economic and social respects, the public at large has reason to be satisfied, and after two years in office the electorate does not see a general election as being desirable just yet.
While "mid-term" figures cannot be taken as being indicative of the outcome of the next general election, in hypothetical terms, if an election were to be held within the next four weeks, the outcome would be another coalition government - the precise composition of which is unclear. Fianna Fail would again be the largest party in the Dail.
Jack Jones is Chairman of MRBI Ltd.