ANALYSIS:Will rising production costs make genetically-modified foods more acceptable?
SCIENCE IS unlikely to provide a "quick fix" answer to the world food crisis. Genetic modification of food holds long-term promise but offers few short-term responses to rising food costs.
Commentators, whether pro or anti genetic modification (GM), generally agree that food prices are being driven upwards by factors that are beyond the potential of GM to fix.
The high cost of oil is a prime example, as is rising demand in India and China for foodstuffs, reduced harvests caused by drought or a changing climate and the diversion of food crops such as wheat and corn into biofuel production.
While GM technology might in time deliver higher yields with a higher nutritional content, it is not expected to be enough to overcome the key drivers affecting prices today: high demand and short supply exacerbated by rising production costs, mainly fuel.
"GM's role in reducing world food problems is in the long term. The current food crisis requires more immediate action," says Dr Joachim von Braun, director general of the Washington DC-based International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
Unfortunately the supply and demand imbalance looks like persisting for a long time given ongoing population growth and an alarmingly static food production scenario, says Prof Mike Gale, an emeritus fellow at the John Innes Foundation in Norwich and a member of the science council of the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR).
"The days of low price food are over," he says. "The real question is whether the world can produce another 50 per cent more food than it does now in order to feed 9.2 billion people in 2040."
While world annual wheat production apparently climbs year on year, production on a per capital basis peaked in 1985 and is now in decline. And if the fraction directed towards biofuels and animal feed is removed from the equation, then the situation is worse.
International bodies such as the IFPRI and CGIAR are struggling to come up with solutions to these problems, as are governments worldwide. Some seem intractable including high energy costs and rising demand driven by population growth. Yet the answer seems to be as simple as getting more food from a smaller space, says Dr Charles Spillane, head of the genetics and biotechnology lab at University College Cork. "The UN Food Summit has indicated that the rapidly growing demand for food worldwide can only be achieved by increasing productivity per hectare, growing more food on less land," he says. "The World Bank estimates that one hectare of land will need to feed five people in 2025, compared to just two people in 1960."
He believes continued research may help win the day. "To achieve these productivity increases will require a massively increased investment in agricultural RD which will have to harness the latest advances in crop genetics, biotechnology and agronomy."
From a GM perspective this means adding genes to food plants to build in specific traits such as drought resistance, or the ability to survive in the salty soils rendered unusable after generations of irrigation. Nutritional value can also be increased using the technology, as seen in the vitamin A-rich Golden Rice variety.
Dr von Braun has no doubt GM will in time play its part in overcoming some of these issues. "In the long run, biotechnology including transgenic technology will contribute an essential element to cope with the environmental and food supply challenges."