When voters in the German state of Schleswig-Holstein go to the polls tomorrow, they could determine who leads the opposition Christian Democrats (CDU) and influence the future of Chancellor Gerhard Schroder's centreleft government. The CDU candidate in the state, the former defence minister Mr Volker Ruhe, is a leading contender for his party's leadership following the resignation of Dr Wolfgang Schauble.
Mr Ruhe has made his bid for the leadership conditional on a good result tomorrow, but opinion polls suggest the CDU has little hope of winning the election and is likely to see its share of the vote fall heavily.
The scandal over illegal donations to the CDU under the former chancellor, Dr Helmut Kohl, has battered the party's credibility and driven voters away in hordes.
The scandal took a sinister turn this week when it emerged that files relating to a number of controversial deals approved by Dr Kohl's government had gone missing and that other documents appeared to have been falsified.
Dr Kohl has denied that secret donations to his party influenced decisions on a French acquisition of an eastern German oil refinery, the sale of tanks to Saudi Arabia and the privatisation of railway property.
But state prosecutors and members of a parliamentary inquiry into the funding scandal are disturbed by the disappearance of the files, and few observers in Berlin believe the documents went missing by accident.
"Of course, our party's situation is a burden to me. It would be unnatural if it were otherwise. But I've done what I can to make sure we can get back on our feet. I want to win in Schleswig-Holstein and thus send a signal at last that things are getting better for my party," Mr Ruhe said yesterday.
Last-minute polls indicate Mr Ruhe will be disappointed and that Schleswig-Holstein's Social Democrat (SPD) prime minister, Ms Heidi Simonis, will enjoy a resounding victory. Ms Simonis's party, which governs the state in coalition with the Greens, could even win an overall majority, a result that would badly cripple Mr Ruhe's leadership ambitions.
The struggle for the CDU leadership has narrowed into a duel between Mr Ruhe and the party's general secretary, Dr Angela Merkel, with conservatives backing the former defence minister while liberals support Dr Merkel. The CDU's Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), is especially hostile to Dr Merkel on account of her progressive stance on women's issues and gay rights.
But many Christian Democrats believe that Dr Merkel is the only senior figure in the party capable of effecting a clean break with the Kohl era.
A big win for Ms Simonis would not only be bad news for Mr Ruhe; it could also damage the Greens, who are increasingly unpopular in Schleswig-Holstein. If the environmentalist party fares badly and the Liberal Free Democrats (FDP) increase their share of the vote, Mr Schroder may be tempted to step up his courtship of the Liberals as an alternative coalition partner at federal level.
The FDP are anxious to distance themselves from the scandal-tainted CDU and many Liberals would be happy to hitch their fragile political wagon to the Chancellor's soaring popularity. With business confidence in Germany at its highest level for five years and the Christian Democrats in disarray, there is little joy to be found on the opposition benches.
Mr Schroder's political purposes are almost certainly better served by remaining in coalition with the Greens, whose weakness and internal divisions he can turn to his advantage.