French decision may put EU treaty in doubt

FRANCE: France is to hold a referendum on the proposed European Union constitution, a decision some observers suggest indicates…

FRANCE: France is to hold a referendum on the proposed European Union constitution, a decision some observers suggest indicates the proposal now has significantly less chance of being ratified across all member-states.

When the time finally came to tell the French how their country would ratify the proposed treaty, President Jacques Chirac yesterday dragged the suspense out a few minutes longer.

"I had planned to talk to the French people on the 14th of July; it was a good occasion to tell them," he said yesterday in his annual Bastille Day interview, broadcast live from a garden party at the Élysée Palace.

"The French are directly concerned, and so they will be directly consulted. So there will be a referendum, most likely next year," Mr Chirac said.

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Before getting round to the main announcement of the day, Mr Chirac again praised "the remarkable Irish presidency and the Irish Prime Minister" for pushing the treaty through. The constitutional treaty was "the fruit of 50 years of effort, pursued by all French heads of state and government without exception, since Gen de Gaulle until myself," he added.

He lauded the former French president, Mr Valéry Giscard d'Estaing, for overseeing its drafting. The constitutional treaty "is a good text ... in conformity with the interests of France, which is strengthened in Europe by the constitution", Mr Chirac said.

The treaty is to be signed in Rome in October, after which the French Constitutional Council will decide how the French constitution must be modified to accommodate it. The National Assembly and Senate will then endorse any changes before the referendum. For this reason, Mr Chirac said, the referendum was unlikely to take place before the second half of 2005.

Asked whether he would personally campaign for a Yes vote, Mr Chirac said: "On a subject like that, certainly. I hope the French will understand that we are asking them a question that is essential for their immediate future, and especially for the future of their children."

The French Socialist Party is divided on the constitution, with some leading members claiming it does not adequately address social issues.

According to some EU officials, Mr Chirac's decision has significantly increased the chances that the constitutional treaty will fail to come into force. Britain, the Netherlands, Spain, Portugal, Denmark, Luxembourg and Ireland have already made clear that they will put the treaty to a popular vote.

A rejection by France would almost certainly mean the end of a constitutional project that has been almost three years in the making.

Some EU officials believe winning support for the treaty could be as difficult in France as in Britain, not least because a referendum next year will follow a decision by EU leaders on starting accession negotiations with Turkey.

Most observers believe the leaders will agree to open talks with Turkey in December, a move that is likely to prove unpopular in France and some other member-states.

The treaty must be ratified by all 25 member-states, either in parliament or by referendum,. If the treaty is rejected in Britain or some of the EU's smaller member-states, those who approve it are likely to seek a new arrangement that would allow them to implement its measures.