A NEW poll yesterday put the millionaire publisher, Mr Steve Forbes, 11 points ahead of Senator Bob Dole in New Hampshire, the first state to vote in a series of primary elections to select a Republican presidential candidate.
The poll, conducted by the Boston Globe and WBZ TV, is a blow to Mr Dole, who needs to win New Hampshire on February 20th to maintain his credibility as favourite for the Republican nomination.
It gives Mr Forbes 31 per cent of the vote, with 22 per cent for Mr Dole, 11 per cent for the commentator Mr Pat Buchanan, 9 per cent for Mr Lamar Alexander and 7 per cent for Senator Phil Gramm.
While Mr Forbes is still dismissed by many analysts as a viable challenger to President Clinton, the maverick conservative is making Mr Dole's third quest for the presidency look increasingly desperate.
The 72 year old Senate majority leader abruptly cancelled a visit to a New Hampshire brewery on Wednesday when he learned its product was called "Old Man Ale". He later returned after aides advised him it would look bad to posed gamely with a bottle old the ale.
But the incident illustrated the wretchedness of the Dole campaign. With consternation in Republican ranks over the prospect of a botched challenge to President Clinton, there has been renewed speculation that Mr Dole may have to persuade former Gen Colin Powell to join him as running mate to survive.
"Powell would be worth six extra points to Dole," Senator Chris Dodd, chairman of the Democratic Party and a key strategist in the campaign to re elect President Clinton, said in an interview about the presidential race.
It said the "Gingrich revolution" was an oxymoron, and the attempt by Mr Dole and the House Speakers Mr Newt Gingrich, to create a new body of conservative legislation had failed.
Now Republicans were facing the most organised Democratic campaign in living memory", Mr Dodd told The Irish Times. "It will be a juggernaut. They have no idea what they are facing.
Another factor which could help the Democrats is the likely appearance of a third party candidate from Mr Ross Perot's new party, said Mr Dodd, Who disclosed he speaks to Mr Perot regularly by telephone about the campaign.
The Democrats, who a year ago were in disarray, have been hugely encouraged by the victory of a Democrat, Mr Ron Wyden, in Oregon, who this week won the seat vacated by a Republican, Mr Bob Packwood.
This was a "confidence building result and gives us bragging rights. It will be talked of as the Harris Wofford race of 1996", he said referring to a shock senate victory for the Democrats in 1991 which was the first indication President Bush could be defeated.
Mr Dodd revealed that the Democratic Party has video clips which it intends to use in the election to convince voters the Republicans are uncaring. One shows Mr Gingrich declaring at a private meeting that Medicare should be allowed to wither on the vine; another has Mr Dole boasting he voted against Medicare the system of health care for people.
The rapid rise of Mr Forbes, who promotes the single issue of a 17 per cent flat tax, has prompted some Republican to reassess his potential. Mr Gingrich praised him as a "genuine risk taker" this week. His greatest asset, said one analyst, is his Reagan like message of "hope, growth and opportunity."
However the media is taking a closer look at Mr Forbes, who has bought his way to prominence with $15 million worth of television advertisements attacking his opponents. Yesterday the Washington Post reported that election officials were questioning whether he received improper campaign contributions from his own company.