There has been a dramatic increase of 8 percentage points in support for Fianna Fáil, with the party recording its highest level of support since the last election at 39 per cent, according to the latest Irish Times/ TNS mrbi opinion poll published today. Stephen Collins, Political Correspondent, reports
Despite all the controversies of recent weeks, the Taoiseach's satisfaction rating has improved marginally, while support for the PDs is also up.
The increase in support for Fianna Fáil and the Taoiseach has come about despite the fact that two-thirds of voters believe that Mr Ahern was wrong to take money for personal use while he was minister for finance.
A clear majority of Fianna Fáil supporters said he was wrong to take the money in Dublin and Manchester.
The adjusted figures for party support are: Fianna Fáil, 39 per cent (up 8 points); Fine Gael, 26 per cent (down 2 points); Labour, 11 per cent (down 4 points); Sinn Féin, 8 per cent (down 1 point); PDs, 4 per cent (up 1 point); Greens, 6 per cent (up 1 point); and Independents/others, 6 per cent (down 3 points).
The poll was conducted last Monday and Tuesday among a representative sample of 1,000 voters at 100 sampling points in all the constituencies in the State.
It took place at the time the Taoiseach and Tánaiste were negotiating to repair the damage to the coalition. The formal announcement that the breach had been repaired took place during the second day of polling.
The core vote for the parties is Fianna Fáil, 36 per cent (up 6 points); Fine Gael, 19 per cent (down two points); Labour, 8 per cent (down 3 points); Sinn Féin, 6 per cent (down one point); PDs, 3 per cent (up 1 point); Green Party, 4 per cent (no change); Independents/others, 5 per cent (down three points); and undecided voters, 19 per cent (up two points).
The surge in Fianna Fáil support has come in spite of the fact that 64 per cent believe Mr Ahern was wrong to take money from friends, while just 24 per cent said it was alright for him to take it.
Even among Fianna Fáil voters 47 per cent said he was wrong and 39 per cent believed he was right.
There was an almost identical response to a question about the Manchester payment.
The Taoiseach's satisfaction rating is up by one point to 53 per cent. The Government's satisfaction rating is up six points to 46 per cent, while dissatisfaction with the Government is at 47 per cent.
While the main Opposition parties are down, the satisfaction rating of their leaders is up. Enda Kenny's rating has risen by two points to 42 per cent; Pat Rabbitte is up by seven percentage points to 48 per cent; Trevor Sargent is up eight to 43 per cent; and Gerry Adams is up four to 43 per cent.
The new PD leader, Michael McDowell, is on 32 per cent compared with the 34 per cent rating for his predecessor, Mary Harney, in the last poll in May.
Mr McDowell will take comfort from the poll. Despite sustained media criticism of his performance, a majority of people believe he was right to decide that Mr Ahern was fit to remain as Taoiseach and to continue in office with him. Mr McDowell has the lowest satisfaction rating of any party leader, but he is close to the rating achieved by Mary Harney in the last poll.
Among PD voters, 55 per cent are satisfied with Mr McDowell, and 27 per cent dissatisfied.
A significant feature of the poll was the drop in support for the main Opposition parties. However, the modest rise in the satisfaction rating for Enda Kenny and the significant increase in Pat Rabbitte's rating is some consolation for them.
Sinn Féin has also seen a further erosion of support, with the party dropping one per cent. It is now significantly lower than the 12 per cent high it achieved twice during 2004.
The Green Party has increased its support to 6 per cent, while party leader Trevor Sargent is up eight points to 45 per cent.
The two Government parties combined now have a lead of 6 per cent over the alternative coalition of Fine Gael and Labour. Last May the alternative coalition was 7 per cent ahead. If the Greens are included in the Opposition the two sides are level on 43 per cent each.