Exquisitely courteous non-committal nature of replies from those canvassed

You know there's a fight on when hostile missives start to arrive in the post

You know there's a fight on when hostile missives start to arrive in the post. Lib Dem candidate for Bristol West, Stephen Williams, got his own campaign letter back with a personal message from Anonymous : "F**k off Stephen". This is one of the few authentic fights to the death in the British elections. What makes it even more intriguing is that it is a genuine three-way scrap between Labour, Lib Dem and Conservative.

Indeed the Greens are claiming it as "the only four-seat marginal in the country" which Williams says is ridiculous. But nothing seems impossible in a constituency with two large universities, where a quarter of the 81,000 electorate are students, up to half are engaged in education at some level and the boiling issues are the Iraq war and tuition/top-up fees.

Since 1997, the seat has been held by Labour's Valerie Davey, swept in with the Labour avalanche, who managed with a majority of 1,500 to dislodge William Waldegrave from a seat held by the Conservatives since 1885. By 2001, she had increased that majority to 4,426 and a 37 per cent share of the vote.

But the other significant news from that election was the collapse of the Tory vote and the Lib Dems' elevation above them to second place with 29 per cent.

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This constituency with its parkland, fine Georgian houses and magnificent university buildings, looks like solid Conservative territory.

But the fact is that the Tory vote had been declining anyway over the previous 20 years in parallel with the population make-up, which was morphing from an affluent/old-established business/inherited wealth profile to a more meritocratic, liberal one.

The Conservative candidate is David Martin, a 60-year-old former MP, described by one observer as an "old school Tory from the 1950s who looks a bit like a Thunderbird".

Martin lost his Yeovil seat to Paddy Ashdown in 1983, became MP for Portsmouth South in 1987, lost that to the Lib Dems in 1997, stood for Rugby and Kenilworth in 2001 (where he worsened Conservative fortunes) and has now pitched up in Bristol West. Despite Tory claims to be running "neck and neck" with Labour in private polls, it seems unlikely.

Take a young, sophisticated, highly-educated electorate, stir in the Iraq war and university fees, observe that Valerie Davey's stances on both were less than wholeheartedly opposed, add a large dose of dissent within Labour ranks (previously a formidable fighting force) since 2003, and it's clear why the Lib Dems view Bristol West as their second most likely gain in the country come May 5th.

"All we need is 4 per cent of those who voted for Davey last time," says Williams, a tax consultant, who at 38 is more than 20 years younger than his two main rivals.

This constituency is distinguished by the exquisitely courteous non-committal nature of the replies from those being canvassed - "I can be persuaded" or "I'm thinking about it" are routine responses - but there are definite signs of a shift.

Davey has been put on the defensive and claims to be the victim of a smear campaign but on the street, young people in particular accuse her of claiming to oppose Labour policies but ultimately lacking the courage to actually vote against them.

"Bristol West is tailor-made for the Lib Dems," says Williams, "but for our stupid system which encourages people to vote for your second choice candidate to keep out the third."