Exit poll suggests Labour will win historic third term

Empty baskets labelled 'Blair' wait for votes to arrive at the count for<br>the Sedgefield Constituency of Prime Minister…

Empty baskets labelled 'Blair' wait for votes to arrive at the count for
the Sedgefield Constituency of Prime Minister Tony Blair,
in Newton Aycliffe tonight

Tony Blair is on course to secure an historic third term in government but at a much-reduced majority, according to exit polls tonight.

Minutes after polling closed at 10pm a joint BBC/ITV exit poll gave Labour 37 per cent of the vote, the Conservative Party 33 per cent and the Liberal Democrats on 22 per cent.

The poll predicts Labour's majority of 160 in the House of Commons will be reduced to 66.

In the first declared result of the election Labour, as expected, held the constituency of Sunderland South. Chris Mullin polled 59 per cent of the vote a decrease of more than 5 per cent with gains for Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and the British National Party.

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A smaller parliamentary majority could hinder Mr Blair's capacity to push forward ambitious reforms of public services and to persuade Britons to back the EU constitution in a promised 2006 referendum.

Five newspaper polls published today gave Labour leads of between three and six percentage points. A final Mori poll for the Evening Standardin London put Labour on 38 per cent, five points ahead of the Conservatives on 33 per cent, with the Liberal Democrats on 23 per cent.

Anger over Iraq - specifically accusations that Mr Blair misled the country over the legality of the 2003 war and intelligence about Saddam Hussein's banned weapons - has been offset by satisfaction with the nation's healthy economy.

The economy has outperformed its European neighbours during the global downturn.

So barring an upset, the main talking points will be the size of Mr Blair's parliamentary majority and the makeup of a new cabinet that he is likely to announce tomorrow.

Mr Blair, far less popular than when he won landslide victories in 1997 and 2001, cast his own vote in Sedgefield this morning. He walked across a football field to vote in a picturesque mining village with wife Cherie and sons Euan and Nicky, both old enough to vote for the first time.

Mr Blair, whose 52nd birthday is tomorrow, said "good morning" to waiting reporters but made no comment about today's ballot.

Liberal Democrat leader Charles Kennedy, accompanied by his wife Sarah, cast his vote in Fort William in his constituency in the Scottish Highlands.

And Conservative leader Mr Michael Howard was joined by his wife Sandra and daughter Larissa as he voted at the Lympne Village Hall in his Folkestone and Hythe constituency.

Winning a third straight poll would be a first for a Labour leader - only Conservative Margaret Thatcher has done it.

But predictions are tricky. Under the electoral system - unlike the proportional party representation in most European countries - all hangs on the outcome of races in individual districts, many of which are too close to call.

Low turnout could hurt Mr Blair. When he first won in 1997, turnout was 71 per cent, but that slumped to 59 per cent in 2001.

Agencies