Poll findings suggest there is still a high degree of volatility among voters
TODAY’S IRISH Times/Ipsos MRBI places Fine Gael firmly in the driving seat to form the next government, in coalition with Labour.
Fine Gael have consolidated their lead, up three points to 33 per cent and nine points ahead of Labour.
Labour, on 24 per cent, have slipped just one point since the last poll in December. Importantly, the party performs strongly as a party other voters would consider, suggesting it could benefit substantially from transfers on election day.
Support for Fianna Fáil is at an all-time low of just 15 per cent in today’s poll. Micheál Martin, as the new leader of Fianna Fáil, has thus far failed to spark a recovery in his party’s fortunes. Perhaps in different times a new face at the head of the Fianna Fáil table would have had an immediate positive effect on support levels, but when your party leads arguably the most unpopular government in our history – currently with a satisfaction rating of just 4 per cent – voters can be forgiven for looking for signs of real change before reconsidering.
Sinn Féin’s December poll surge, when the party jumped to 15 per cent following Pearse Doherty’s byelection success, has retreated somewhat, although today’s rating of 12 per cent is one of their highest in the past decade.
The rise of the Independents and Others continues, up to 15 per cent, an increase of four points, whereas the Green Party has dropped to just 1 per cent, its lowest rating since 2008.
Today’s Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll ratings are broadly consistent with our December ratings. And even though the posters have only begun to appear on lamp posts in recent days, there is a sense that the die has been cast already. Interestingly, although no formal pact has been agreed, Labour voters are more likely to consider Fine Gael than any other party, and vice versa. It is Fine Gael’s and Labour’s election to lose.
We have certainly reached a new stage in the political journey that began just before the 2007 general election. Before the 2007 election and immediately after, voters were focused on preventing our edifice of economic prosperity from crumbling, with the result that seven in every 10 voters were choosing a party on the right, either Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael. That particular stage in the journey ended in late 2008 when the banking system and our economy crashed.
The next stage began with a collapse in support for Fianna Fáil as the electorate, reeling from a jump in unemployment and a sharp decline in economic output, looked to Labour for hope and reassurance.
Then in late 2010 hope turned to anger when the IMF and the EU came to Dublin, to usher in a new age of austerity. The next stage had begun. If households were uncertain as to what this austerity would look like, it became all too clear in January when the Universal Social Charge kicked in. Suddenly, less than one in every two voters are in either the Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael camp.
Recent public anger appears to have manifested itself in two other ways. Firstly, Fianna Fáil have lost another layer of support, with many of those leaving choosing to stay on the right, defaulting to Fine Gael. Interestingly, among the professional classes (ABs), Fine Gael attract 46 per cent of the vote.
And secondly, more voters on the left are going to the extreme or looking outside the established parties as a way of venting their frustration, with Labour giving up some of its 2010 gains as a result, although they continue to hold on to more than twice the level of support they received in the 2007 general election.
But political journeys never end. The only question is: will the next stage in the journey begin over the course of this campaign or will we have to wait until after the election?
While there are signs that voting patterns are consolidating, with the prospect of very little change before February 25th, there are also poll findings that suggest a high degree of volatility remains.
For example, 38 per cent of voters believe they may still change their minds, an increase of three points on our December poll, which goes against the conventional wisdom that suggests more voters become certain of their choice as the election nears.
Some parties can rely more on their supporters not changing their minds. Sinn Féin voters are especially assured in their choice, while Labour and Independents/Others have a much softer vote than other parties, possibly driven by the high proportion of new recruits they have attracted since the 2007 election.
Some voters are more likely to turn out to vote than others. Interestingly, Sinn Féin may have the most assured voter base but these voters are the least likely of all parties to have voted in the last election. And then there is the party leader factor, which in the heat of an election campaign can easily bend voting preferences out of shape. Micheál Martin’s satisfaction rating of 25 per cent is unusually low for a new leader, no doubt reflecting the high level of public dissatisfaction with his party and with the current Government. Concerns over his impact on Fianna Fáil’s performance in Dublin are not borne out by this poll as the party has actually improved its standing in Dublin, up two points to 13 per cent support. And Fianna Fáil have also gained, albeit marginally, amongst female voters.
Enda Kenny’s satisfaction rating has jumped to 30 per cent (up seven points), his highest in more than a year. His media strategy, which has been commented upon extensively in recent weeks, may be working with the voters, although there can be no avoiding the fact that his personal satisfaction rating continues to lag behind his party’s poll rating.
For other party leaders there has been very little or no movement (Eamon Gilmore unchanged on 44 per cent, Gerry Adams down one point to 27 per cent and John Gormley up two points to 15 per cent), with Eamon Gilmore still the most popular party leader.
Voters are angry and parties are feeding on that anger because for most parties it reinforces their position. Fine Gael want voters to be angry at Fianna Fáil. Sinn Féin want voters to be angry at Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. Labour want voters to be angry at the possibility that Fianna Fáil could end up in government with Fine Gael. Fianna Fáil want voters to stop being angry.
It seems inevitable, that negative messaging will feature more strongly in this campaign, and this presents perhaps the greatest potential for a shift in voting patterns. We are not used to campaigns and campaigning where there is no hope offered, only different types of pain. A different message, a positive message, if credibly delivered, could stand out like a beacon to voters tired of the blame game and upset the consensus that is emerging.