The most recent IT boom on campus began in 1999 when the Government allocated £75 million for 5,400 new IT places at third-level. This was a direct result of the report by the newly-convened Expert Group on Future Skills Needs.
This group has kept the situation under review and, last year, it commissioned two sectoral studies of demand for 2001 to 2005. McIver Consulting reported on the skills needs of the software industry and the emerging areas of e-business, digital media and multimedia. Eirlink reported on changing skills requirements for the hardware industry. Both studies found that growth in the IT sector was constrained by the availability of skilled personnel.
A third study by the ESRI, completed in February 2001, provided labour market projections and forecasts of supply of third-level IT graduates. The ESRI estimated an annual shortfall of about 2,500 professionals and 800 technicians for the period 2001 to 2005.
The latest report by the expert skills group duly recommended, in July this year, that significant additional resources should be invested in IT skills provision. High-profile job losses began in Ireland in August, although the economic turndown in the US was noted, and discounted, by the expert group. Obviously, nobody could have foreseen the added downward impetus supplied by the destruction of the World Trade Centre.
Expert skills group member Seamus Gallen says the gap between skills needs and projected number of graduates is "so big that even the downturn won't bridge it". He says many of the closures here were in hardware companies. "Software got off pretty lightly, although it's a bad story compared to last year. It's still a good story compared to eight or 10 years ago. I certainly wouldn't be thinking of cutting place numbers at third level."
In fact, he's more worried about filling available places, with a shrinking pool of school-leavers.
At undergraduate level, the number of students who put computing on top of their list of CAO choices has declined. However, most colleges should have little difficulty in filling their courses this year.
The pool of available students (mostly mature) who have been taking accelerated technician courses is also declining.
For those leaving colleges this year, jobs offers may decline from the multiple to the single but Gallen, who works for the National Software Directorate, expects almost all graduates who seek employment will secure it. Starting salaries for those with a primary degree are in the range of £15,000 to £20,000, with most getting between £16,000 and £18,000. This is similar to last year.
Students in the first year of a computing course should not panic, he says. The chances of earning millions from selling vapourware are very much reduced, but IT still offers a very solid career.
