BRITAIN: Tony Blair has signalled that Britons can still expect to vote on the European Constitution if it survives a No vote in the French referendum on May 29th, writes Frank Millar, in London
However, doubts persisted last night about the Labour government's disposition and intention should the opinion polls prove correct and the French people reject the constitution.
At an election press conference devoted to health issues Mr Blair was forced to respond to a report in yesterday's Guardian newspaper suggesting the British referendum planned for next year was unlikely to proceed in that event. This followed an admission by Foreign Secretary Jack Straw that he could not anticipate the response of the European Council to such a development.
Sticking to the position he adopted at last week's Labour manifesto launch, Mr Blair told reporters he had "always said we'll have a vote on the constitution" regardless of what happened in other countries. However, Mr Blair then appeared to concede there might be no vote if there was "no constitution" by that stage.
Confirming this last night senior government sources said: "If the French say 'No' and the European Council meets and folds the whole thing, obviously that's one possible scenario."
However, the sources stressed that Mr Blair "wants this (the constitution) to succeed" and insisted there was no sense in which a French "No" would be privately welcomed as letting the prime minister "off the hook".
The suggestion was that if other countries disregarded a negative French outcome and proceeded to ratify the new constitution in their national parliaments or in referendums, a British vote would proceed as promised.
As previously reported in The Irish Times some Labour insiders have predicted that a French No could intensify pressure for Mr Blair's departure from Downing Street in favour of a Gordon Brown succession, assuming Labour wins the election.
However, Blair loyalists believe the chancellor would have to support Mr Blair in any referendum campaign, not least because he would not wish to have his own presumed leadership dominated from the outset by unresolved European issues. Those close to him also insist that Mr Blair is keen to "engage with the (French President) Chirac argument" about the future of Europe, and to press for "more liberalisation" as opposed to "the social protectionist route".
However, Mr Blair has not been eager to engage the British voting public on European issues and he will have been relieved that the Conservatives did not seek to push the issue centre-stage on a day Labour devoted to announcing three new commitments on cancer treatments and to questioning the Conservative commitment to the National Health Service.
Conservative leader Michael Howard returned Mr Blair's fire by accusing Labour of lying about his policies.