Public opinion in France, Germany and Austria remains firmly against admitting Turkey to full membership of the EU, writes Jamie Smyth in Luxembourg
The need to call an emergency meeting of EU foreign ministers last night to try to reach agreement on starting accession talks with Turkey highlights growing sensitivity throughout Europe about the future enlargement of the Union.
It is more than 40 years since Turkey first indicated its wish to join the EU, and its path to beginning formal accession talks was finally sanctioned at a European Council meeting in December 2004. However, a late objection to the text of the negotiating framework - a set of guiding principles and procedures for the accession talks - by Austria last week plunged the EU into last-ditch diplomacy on the eve of the talks start-date today.
Austria, the only EU state to move to block the talks last week, wants to include the possibility of forming a partnership with Turkey in the text of the negotiation framework rather than pursuing only full membership. Turkey remains implacably opposed to negotiating towards anything other than full membership, and has threatened to walk away if the framework text is changed.
Domestic political concerns - regional elections took place in Austria yesterday - are playing a role in Vienna's recent objection to beginning accession talks with Turkey under the current negotiating framework, according to political analysts.
Austrian concerns revolve around that fact that Turkey is a predominantly Islamic state, says Michael Emerson, an analyst at the Centre for European Policy Studies.
"There is a significant extreme right-wing in Austrian politics, which although not in government, colours the political landscape," he says. "There is a fear that accession to the EU will open the door to hordes of Muslims, almost back to the days when the Ottoman Empire was at the gates of Vienna."
Fears of migration from Turkey, which has a relatively poor population of 70 million, has set public opinion in Austria firmly against Ankara's European ambitions. A recent Eurobarometer survey published by the European Commission found 80 per cent of Austrians do not want Turkey to join. Just 10 per cent were in favour.
Public opinion in France and Germany is also strongly against Turkey joining the EU, with opposition recorded at 70 per cent and 74 per cent respectively.
Key politicians in Germany and Austria have already tapped into the public's antipathy toward offering full membership of the EU to Turkey. Angela Merkel, a frontrunner to become Germany's next chancellor, wants a "privileged partnership" with Turkey rather than full EU membership. Nicholas Sarkozy, a leading contender to replace Jacques Chirac as the next French president in 2007, has a similar policy.
The French government blamed the no vote on the European constitution in the summer on fears of enlargement. And just a few weeks after the referendum, Paris publicly questioned beginning talks on EU entry with Ankara at a time when Turkey still refuses to recognise Cyprus, an existing member of the European Union.
In July Ankara signed a customs agreement with all 10 new member states, including Cyprus, which was a key condition for opening accession talks with Turkey. But the Turkish government explicitly stated this did not mean it formally recognised Cyprus.
Concerns about enlargement have also persuaded Paris to change its own constitution in a manner that will force a referendum before it will sanction any new members entering the EU after 2007. This may prove to be a major stumbling block for Turkey.
The current debate over the accession talks is also linked to member states' own geopolitical goals. Vienna's brinkmanship has enabled it to press the case for starting EU accession talks with Croatia, a country within its own sphere of influence.
These talks are currently stalled due to concerns that Croatia is not cooperating with the United Nations war crimes tribunal in The Hague. Chief UN war crimes prosecutor Carla del Ponte has declared she is deeply disappointed that Zagreb has failed to catch its fugitive general Ante Gotovina, who is accused of murdering scores of Serbs during the Balkans wars in the early 1990s. Ms del Ponte is due to brief EU members later today about Croatia's search for Gen Gotovina.
The question of whether to allow Turkey into the EU also has wider political consequences for the future direction of the EU, different member states and Europe's relations with the US.
Britain, which arranged the emergency talks yesterday and is Turkey's closest ally in the EU, favours a wider and looser union, compared to the more closely integrated EU that is the goal of Paris and Berlin. Bringing a large country such as Turkey into the EU will meet its own ambitions for a more flexible Union.
Britain also wants to see Turkey as a model democratic Islamic state within the EU.
Turkey is also a key ally of the US in the strategically important Middle East region. It entered the debate about Turkey's relationship with the EU last week by warning it would be a "disaster" if Ankara's membership bid for the EU was turned down.
The success or failure of accession talks with Turkey will also hold important consequences for the future enlargement of the EU, according to John Palmer from the European Policy Centre, who predicts that Turkey will not join for at least 10 years.
"The Balkan countries are likely to achieve full membership, but when you move beyond this region to places such as Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, quite apart from Turkey, there is going to be talk of about creating something else . . . a new EU neighbourhood policy."
But in the short-term, just getting accession talks started with Turkey is a milestone for the EU, which is still suffering a crisis of confidence after the rejection of the EU constitution in France and the Netherlands in the summer and a failure to agree its new budget.