The latest report on decommissioning from Gen John de Chastelain may be released on Friday, according to usually reliable sources. The general's assessment could determine the fate of the new Northern Executive and the other institutions established in Northern Ireland last month.
The report is due by January 31st at the latest. Senior sources said while they expected it to appear at the end of this week, the possibility of holding it over until the last minute on Monday could not be completely ruled out. Its likely content is now a major focus of attention by all the Northern parties as well as the British and Irish governments.
Republican sources last night confirmed that there would be no handover of IRA weapons by the end of the month or in the immediate future. There is now a widespread expectation that although Gen de Chastelain's report may be brief, it will be positive in tone, but he will not be in a position to report actual decommissioning of weapons.
Since the only deadline set for decommissioning in the Belfast Agreement is next May, it seems unlikely the general will be able to report a default on the terms of the Belfast Agreement. However, a decision to suspend the Executive, resume direct rule and institute another review process is still believed to a serious possibility. Senior republicans said last night such a move "does not make sense". They said the Executive was starting to function, with even the Democratic Unionist Party ministers playing a part in the political process.
The experiment was starting to work and it was only through political progress, rather than ultimatums, that the weapons issue could be resolved eventually.
However, nerves are fraught on the unionist side following last week's acceptance of the main recommendations in the Patten report on policing. A review is seen as a means of buying time for Mr David Trimble and his leadership.
Meanwhile, the Northern Ireland Office has played down suggestions that the provision of office facilities at Westminster for the Sinn Fein MPs, Mr Gerry Adams and Mr Martin McGuinness, had been put on hold pending decommissioning. A spokesman for the NIO said that "in principle" the British government believed the facilities should still be provided. "We said we would consult with parties at Westminster. We are still in that process."
The chairman of Sinn Fein, Mr Mitchel McLaughlin, warned that if London shelved its plans it would be sending "a very negative signal indeed". He was responding to a claim by Ulster Unionist MP Mr Ken Maginnis, citing "reliable sources", that the British government had backed down on its proposal.
Independent observers believed there was a feeling in British government circles that it would not be politically wise or tactful to grant facilities to Sinn Fein in the immediate aftermath of London's broad acceptance of the Patten report.
In a separate development, Mr Trimble told RTE Radio yesterday that the February 12th meeting of the Ulster Unionist Council did not constitute a deadline for the IRA to hand over arms.
Although not denying a review was a possibility, Mr Trimble said: "I don't want to focus on that." Attention should be focused on the "primary thing", which was making the institutions work.