CROATIA:Having seen Romania and Bulgaria join the European Union, and neighbouring Slovenia become the first ex-communist state to adopt the euro, Croatia is determined to be the next central European state to board the train for Brussels.
But Zagreb fears its bid to achieve membership in 2009 could be derailed by pessimism about further expansion in major western member states and general elections this year that could see vital reforms postponed for the campaign period.
Croatia is wealthier that Bulgaria and Romania, and its last major fugitive war crimes suspect was caught in 2005, but it still has work to do fighting corruption, cutting state subsidies, and reforming the judiciary and public administration before the EU decides to accept its 28th member.
"There is a mounting list of preconditions - the judiciary, competition, shipyards, subsidies. Not enough laws have been passed, let alone implemented," said Goran Saravanja, a regional analyst at the CAIB investment bank.
"Only politicians, and even then only some, still talk of EU entry in 2009 with a straight face," he said. "I think 2011 or 2012 is more realistic." Analysts and investors fear the battle for votes in the forthcoming election will encourage the government to delay cost-cutting reforms that could cause job losses and anger the electorate.
"There are no signs of real reforms," said Jorn Pedersen, the head of Croatia's foreign investors' council. "It doesn't mean the government is not aware of the need for them, but it seems there's a fear to take action."
Croatia, a country of 4.5 million people, seems at least as ready as Romania and Bulgaria to join the EU. However, its bid has long been hampered by its failure to catch war crimes suspect Gen Ante Gotovina. It has also been complicated by the Nice treaty on EU rule-making, which lays out a system for just 27 member states.
The constitution that was to supersede the Nice treaty was rejected by France and The Netherlands and is now in limbo, a victim of growing unease about migrant workers heading west and major employers moving to the cheaper east.
Beginning this key year for its EU ambitions, Croatia's foreign ministry insisted it was ready to accelerate pre-accession reforms, and called the membership of Romania and Bulgaria evidence of the bloc's continued commitment to enlargement.