Court ruling became disaster for troubled Turkish coalition

THE three month old coalition government fell yesterday, brought down not by the political intrigues which have characterised…

THE three month old coalition government fell yesterday, brought down not by the political intrigues which have characterised its existence, but the delayed, effect of a ruling by the country's constitutional courts.

The decision by the Prime Minister, Mr Mesut Yilmaz, to tender his resignation followed the release of the official justification behind last month's court ruling, which declared invalid the vote of confidence Mr Yilmaz won in March.

Mr Yilmaz's resignation had been demanded by his opponents (as well as his coalition partners, the True Path Party) for some weeks. His sudden willingness to accede to their demands is explained by his desire to pre-empt the vote of censure originally planned for tomorrow.

The coalition, formed by Mr Yilmaz's Motherland Party and the True Path Party, which is headed by the former Prime Minister, Mrs Tansu Ciller, was the centre right alliance favoured by Turkey's military, bureaucratic and business establishments. It was regarded as the only government capable of keeping the pro Islamist Welfare Party out of power and implementing the structural changes desired by the country's pro Western elite.

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This optimism proved groundless, as Mrs Ciller floundered in a series of corruption scandals, and ever shriller exchanges between, the coalition partners incapacitated the business of government. An indication of how fed up business became with the uncertainty was provided yesterday by Istanbul's Stock Exchange's compound index which soared more than 2,000 points following Mr Yilmaz's resignation.

The interested parties now have 45 days to come to an agreement which satisfies the President, Mr Suleyman Demirel, and present a new coalition for a vote of confidence. At present all potential configurations face serious impediments. The strongest party in Turkey's Parliament is the Welfare Party. Both the True Path and Motherland Parties would face internal revolt should they choose to align with the Welfare, which allies a rigorously anti West stance to its traditional, religious orientation.

Mrs Ciller is seen as more likely, to take the plunge with the Welfare, while Mr Yilmaz is said to favour an alliance with Turkey's two social democratic parties. For much of the rank and file of both the Motherland and True Path, the most attractive option is a fresh coalition between the two, headed by a new leader, and supported by a third partner from the social democrats.

As for the Welfare, its leader, Mr Nccmettin Erbakan, has of late been at pains to project his party as the moderate face of Islamism, at home with Nato membership, Europe and the secular legacy of Ataturk. When he wears his other hat, Mr Erbakan routinely calls (all the while denouncing Israel, the West and topless sunbathing) for the introduction of the Shariah Islamic law, the outlawing of interest bearing accounts and a reorientation towards the Middle East.

This time a coalition of a more secular hue may succeed in denying Mr Erbakan power. The same happened after last December's general elections. Whether such repeated rebuffs continue to enhance the standing of the still ascendant Welfare remains to be seen.