It's always a bad sign when people call a press conference but refuse to answer questions. Such was the case at the offices of the Parades Commission in Belfast city centre yesterday. The chairman, Mr Alistair Graham, and his fellow commission-member, Mr Glen Barr, read out short statements.
Having been appointed to the commission only two months ago, Mr Barr was now resigning. There had been speculation that the commission had decided to ban the Drumcree parade and there were suggestions Mr Barr was about to step down because of that.
Mr Barr stressed he had "no difficulties with the commission, the concept on which it has been established or the decisions it is likely to take". He was stepping down because of "enormous pressure from the media and others".
So it's all our fault. Mr Barr, one of those formidable men who led the loyalist workers' strike which brought down the 1974 power-sharing executive, had decided to call it a day because he could "anticipate a situation in which I become the focus of speculation in every future decision of the commission".
That was it: the media packed away their notebooks, tape-recorders and cameras. But there was more to come. As the afternoon progressed, speculation grew into certainty that another loyalist member of the commission, Mr Tommy Cheevers, of the Apprentice Boys, was about to go.
No press conference this time: Mr Cheevers went by fax. He had "reluctantly" tendered his resignation, adding that he was not in any way unhappy with the "overall" role of the commission.
There was even speculation about the position of Mr Graham himself. However, a spokesman said there was "absolutely, categorically, no question of him going".
Even well-wishers of the commission, who are hard to come by in either community, admitted the situation was "a real mess". It will be extremely difficult to get anyone with a shred of "street cred" to serve on the commission in place of Messrs Barr and Cheevers. The present crisis first began to rumble on Sunday night when the Ulster Unionist leader, Mr David Trimble, was apparently told the commission was about to reveal in a 7,000-word preliminary analysis of the marching season that it was inclined to take the view the controversial Orange march from Drumcree Church along the Garvaghy Road in Portadown should be rerouted.
This would be hedged about with all sorts of qualifications, but such subtleties count for little in the charged political climate here.
Quite predictably, Mr Trimble was gravely alarmed. To announce such a suggestion, however qualified, would have seriously undermined the campaign for a Yes vote in next month's referendum.
The UUP leader denies he contacted the Prime Minister, stating he spoke only to a Labour backbencher. Whoever it was, his words had a rapid effect, because Mr Blair very quickly wrote to the commission suggesting publication of the preliminary assessment be called off.
The fact that the Prime Minister had to intervene at the 11th hour lent the affair an element of farce. It was known well in advance the assessment was coming out and if it was necessary to intervene, this should have been done at a much earlier stage.
Pro-agreement campaigners will feel it was sensible to cancel publication of the assessment. The trouble is that the commission is meant to be an independent body. Its ready compliance with the wishes of Mr Blair means its credibility is, to be charitable, seriously in question.
Following on the earlier leak of an elaborate Northern Ireland Office plan for a media campaign to win the referendum, the plain people of the North, especially in the unionist community, are now more likely to listen to those who say there is a conspiracy afoot to usher them into a united Ireland.
The notion of publishing a preliminary assessment on parades might have had some merit in a different political situation. There could have been a discussion around it and when the time came for the commission either to ban or permit specific marches, such as Drumcree, the reasons for its decisions would have been that much clearer. However, the conclusion of the Stormont talks and the publication of the Belfast Agreement altered the whole political environment. Mr Blair found himself between a rock and a hard place: had the assessment been published, all hell might have broken loose. He succeeds in getting the document withheld - and all hell broke loose anyway.
By their own lights, the intentions of Mr Graham and Mr Blair are good ones. But like many a well-meaning Englishman before them, they are discovering that just when you think you have the answer, the Irish, or in this case the Northern Irish, change the question.