We were closer to a snap election last week than was realised at the time. It wasn't the threat of the PDs pulling out but because the Taoiseach, Bertie Ahern, was being urged by sectors within his cabinet to go to the country immediately. Indeed, no sooner had he surmounted the revelations of meetings with Tom Gilmartin than some Ministers were urging a quick election. His standing was high, they argued, he could get the long-sought majority, the independants were vulnerable, now was the time.
Being the man he is - and that's no gambler - he demurred. It was just as well. The weekend poll saw his personal standing down by 12 points and the party's by seven. Considering that FF's rating tends to drop during campaigns, the Taoiseach is no doubt pleased that, unlike some of his predecessors, he didn't cut and run despite the urgings of his Ministers. Meanwhile the country may be booming and the tiger roaring but the Government is vulnerable in a number of areas and FG is ready to exploit the weak spots to the fullest at its ard fheis in the RDS next weekend. Our problems are those of success and, FG believes, the Government is failing to address them. They cite the crises in housing, transport and health. Prosperity may be more widespread but the quality of life is deteriorating and unless the problems of daily living are ameliorated, the electorate will become increasingly disgruntled and - FG hopes - take it out on the Government. FG's agenda next weekend is a continuation of its old social justice concerns but with a modern and Dublin slant. While elections can be won and lost in Dublin, the party is aware most recent polls show a nationwide rise in the undecided and thus that this is the sector to target. The old FG issue of agriculture will also feature as will the current sleaze allegations. The major theme of leader John Bruton's address will be a call for genuinely accountable politics.
FG is confident. The members don't want a general election just yet but come June, they'll be ready. New Labour doesn't frighten them. In common with FF, they believe the merger will not result in many more seats but they do want to see a slight Labour resurgence - i.e., enough seats for a future two-party coalition.