US:Hillary Clinton now trails Barack Obama by every measure in the Democratic race - the popular vote, delegate count, number of states won, cash in hand and national opinion polls, writes Denis Stauntonin Washington
The former first lady still believes she can win the nomination but her success depends entirely on the outcome of two primaries on March 4th - in Texas and Ohio.
Former president Bill Clinton has been reassuring donors and other key supporters that a staff shake-up has left the campaign more focused and prepared for do-or-die fights in two huge, diverse and politically complex states.
The Clinton campaign has taken in more than $13 million in contributions since the beginning of February and has spent very little in the contests since Super Tuesday on February 5th. Mrs Clinton made a tactical decision to ignore last weekend's contests in states like Nebraska and Louisiana, which Mr Obama was always tipped to win.
She made a more painful choice in underfunding her ground operation in Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia last Tuesday, allowing Mr Obama to ramp up huge victories. She will campaign in Wisconsin over the next few days but does not expect to win there or in Hawaii, which also votes next Tuesday.
All of Mrs Clinton's top operatives and almost all her resources are now concentrated in Texas and Ohio, where her goal is not only to prevail but to win by such big margins that she can erode Mr Obama's delegate lead.
Texas is the bigger prize with 193 delegates and it is also the more obviously promising state for Mrs Clinton. She has the support of most of the Democratic party establishment in the state, which has a big Hispanic population that has been leaning heavily towards her.
There is one enormous complication, however, in that only 65 per cent of Texas's delegates are chosen in the primary, with the other 35 per cent chosen at 18,000 caucuses later that day. Only voters who have already voted in the primary can take part in the caucuses, which were originally conceived as a means of keeping the selection process under the control of party bosses.
Mr Obama has been more successful at caucuses than Mrs Clinton, chiefly because his supporters tend to be better organised and more highly motivated.
In an effort to counter this advantage, the Clinton campaign is moving 30,000 volunteers into Texas, mostly from Arkansas, Oklahoma and Tennessee, neighbouring states Mrs Clinton has already won.
A new poll published yesterday shows Mrs Clinton leading Mr Obama by 14 points in Ohio, a bellwether state that has gone to the Republicans in recent presidential elections.
Mostly white and working class, Ohio ought to be solid Clinton country but her campaign is concerned that, in the conservative north of the state, male voters are unusually resistant to the idea of a woman president. Ohio is also a highly diverse state, with pockets of severe poverty and urban blight in cities like Youngstown as well as bustling, modern cities like the state capital, Columbus.
It has more than 100 universities and colleges, which is good news for Mr Obama, but the Clinton campaign hopes to win by big margins among many ethnic groups, including Irish-Americans. The campaign credits its big victory in Massachusetts to an energetic ground operation that targeted ethnic groups and came within a few thousand votes of Mr Obama in Boston, which has a large black population and the biggest student population of any US city.
Mr Obama is also gearing up for major battle in Texas and Ohio, conscious that if these two contests offer Mrs Clinton a chance to stay in the race they offer him an opportunity to drive her out of it.
Even if Mrs Clinton wins both states by 10-15 point margins, Mr Obama will still have more pledged delegates and will remain the frontrunner. If Mr Obama wins either state, however, Mrs Clinton will be finished and will almost certainly withdraw from the race.
Mr Obama has recalibrated his message to appeal beyond his mostly well-heeled base to working-class voters with a more specific set of policy prescriptions than before. Mrs Clinton complained yesterday that he had stolen most of the new policies from her and she is hammering home the message that, while Mr Obama is all about making promises, she is about offering solutions.
At a General Motors plant in Ohio yesterday, Mrs Clinton donned a pair of boxing gloves a supporter gave her and portrayed herself as a fighter and Mr Obama as lacking substance.
"That's the difference between me and my opponent. My opponent makes speeches. I offer solutions. It is one thing to get people excited. I want to empower you," she said.