Clear message that voters are unhappy with Government

Today's is the first Irish Times /TNS mrbi poll conducted since June of this year, with interviewing carried out in the aftermath…

Today's is the first Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll conducted since June of this year, with interviewing carried out in the aftermath of the main Government and Opposition parties' think-ins in Cavan, Clonmel, Dublin and Mullingar.

Other events which may have influenced public opinion over the summer months include the return of the "Colombia Three" to Ireland, and the more recent airing of RTÉ's show Rip Off Republic, presented by Eddie Hobbs.

June's poll heralded welcome news for Labour, as well as for Fine Gael which registered its highest opinion poll rating in over five years.

Conversely, satisfaction with the Government, and support for Fianna Fáil, had dropped significantly since earlier in the year as the Government's management of the health service came in for particular criticism from the Opposition.

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All in all, the signs at that stage were that the potential rainbow coalition of Fine Gael, Labour and the Green Party was growing in credibility and stature in the eyes of the electorate, as satisfaction with the current administration was faltering.

Overall party support levels as of this Monday and Tuesday are remarkably consistent with those reported in June. Core support levels are all within one percentage point of that last poll, and well within the statistical margin of error of plus or minus three points pertaining to a survey of this nature.

The overall proportion of undecideds has increased by 4 per cent, which is not unusual for a survey conducted immediately following the relatively uneventful holiday period.

When the standard statistical adjustments are made to counterbalance the propensity of respondents to overstate support for Fianna Fáil, that party's support sits just two points above its disastrous share of last year's local election vote, with the PDs unchanged at 4 per cent. The recent gains made by the Opposition have remained solid, with signs that support for both Fine Gael and Labour has increased somewhat in the key Dublin area, where Fine Gael performed so poorly in 2002.

A more detailed analysis of the last two polls reveals that Fianna Fáil's support is weakest in urban areas in general (including Dublin), as well as among younger (18-34-year-old) voters. The party would traditionally have performed relatively well in these two constituencies, and has ceded ground over the last number of years to Sinn Féin in particular in this regard.

On this note, it is a fact that the age profile of Labour's core voter is somewhat older than that of both Fine Gael and the Green Party's. In one respect this makes sense, given the ageing profile of its sitting TDs. Combined support for the rainbow coalition opposition is now at 44 per cent compared to the Fianna Fáil/PD total of 38 per cent.

The rainbow alliance will now be aiming to increase its share of support closer to the 46 per cent which was enough to return the current administration in 2002. At least part of this effort will require Labour reaching out to the younger voter, a process the party has already begun in selecting a series of younger candidates to contest the next election in a year or two.

While analysis of party support levels in isolation would appear to indicate a relatively stable political landscape, a review of Government and party leader support levels paints a more complex and dynamic picture.

The first poll following the Dáil summer recess will often produce slightly depressed party leader satisfaction ratings across the board. In such instances, the proportion of respondents stating they are satisfied with a particular leader will drop, with a corresponding uplift in the numbers expressing no opinion. In other words, it is not that more people have become dissatisfied with the leader in question, but rather that fewer feel qualified to grant them a positive rating as they have not seen or heard of them for a number of months.

To varying degrees, the satisfaction ratings for Pat Rabbitte, Trevor Sargent and Enda Kenny appear to have suffered in this regard. Mary Harney's rating as Tánaiste remains practically unchanged since the last poll, albeit at its lowest level so far since she took office in this Government.

Satisfaction with both the Government and Taoiseach Bertie Ahern have, however, dropped significantly over the last three months, registering their third successive decrease since January of this year. The five-point drop in satisfaction with the Government is statistically significant. More worrying for the Government, however, is the fact that 58 per cent of the Irish electorate is now dissatisfied with its administration, up from 51 per cent last June. Very few respondents (just 6 per cent of the total; 7 per cent in the last poll) did not express an opinion at this question, ie voters in this instance are sending a clear message to the Government that they are becoming increasingly unhappy with the manner in which the country is being run.

A similar dynamic is evident when we analyse Mr Ahern's personal ratings from poll to poll. Today's survey sets the Taoiseach's satisfaction level at 47 per cent, with an identical proportion dissatisfied.

In other words, 7 per cent of the electorate, the equivalent to roughly 200,000 voters, have switched from being satisfied with him to being unhappy with his performance as leader of the Government over the last 15 weeks.

Coverage of the poll in tomorrow's Irish Times will provide insight as to precisely which elements of governance the electorate is unhappy with.

It would be reasonable to assume, however, that the Eddie Hobbs show, watched by record numbers, must have had some negative impact on the Government's ratings. The media furore over the show will of course peter out over the coming weeks, and the Government will make a special effort to counter some of its more damaging charges.

It does confirm, however, that there is a general sense of unease out there, with a belief among many that they have not benefited as well as they might have from the fruits of our economic success.

It is for the Opposition to prove that they have the vision and wherewithal to manage matters more equitably.

This survey in the Republic of Ireland was conducted exclusively on behalf of The Irish Times by TNS mrbi, among a national quota sample of 1,000 representative of the 2.82 million electors aged 18 upwards, covering 100 sampling points throughout all constituencies in the Republic.

Personal in-home interviewing took place on September 19th and 20th, and the accuracy level is estimated to be approximately plus or minus 3 per cent. In all respects, the survey was conducted within the guidelines laid down by the Association of Irish Market Research Organisations (AIMRO), and by ESOMAR (European Society). TNS mrbi is a member of both AIMRO and ESOMAR.

Extracts from the report may be quoted or published on condition that due acknowledgment is given to: The Irish Times and TNS mrbi.