At the end of this month the education office of the Conference of Religious of Ireland, the religious orders' umbrella body, will receive the conclusions of four studies into new models of Catholic trusteeship - or ownership - of the State's 360 voluntary Catholic secondary schools.
These now represent just under half the total number of second-level schools. They include all the prestigious fee-paying schools, such as those owned by the Jesuits, the Holy Ghost Fathers and the Loreto Sisters, as well as the much larger number of more egalitarian establishments owned by the main educational orders: just under 100 by the Mercy Sisters, 70 by the Christian Brothers and 45 by the Presentation Sisters.
Most of the 60 religious orders involved in education own only a few schools each.
Three years ago CORI published a trustees' handbook recognising the need for change in the ownership of the orders' secondary schools. The key factors dictating this change were the declining membership and ageing profile of members of the orders; significant future rationalisation of second-level schooling as pupil numbers fall; the growing pluralism of Irish society, leading to an increased demand for alternatives to denominational schooling and efforts to bring about greater regionalisation in education administration.
The last of these may have been shelved by the Government, but all the other factors are still crucial, notably the collapse in vocations. The 1997-98 figures show that there were just over 660 members of religious orders in secondary education (5.2 per cent of the total), compared to 2,300 in 1969-70 (34 per cent of the total) and 1,000 in 1992-93 (just under 10 per cent). Under 5 per cent of them are aged 35 or less.
A second key factor has been the move by small but significant numbers of religious into working with more deprived pupils through home-school liaison and early school-leaver schemes, as well as in "out of school" support and family centres. This is the work CORI would like to see more religious moving into.
In a paper two years ago, Sister Teresa McCormack and Mr Peter Archer, of CORI's education office, put together a detailed discussion paper which concluded that the best way forward for the orders' schools would involve new forms of trusteeship with "unprecedented levels of lay involvement".
They felt that the other two future options - transferring the schools to diocesan ownership or changing their status to community schools or community colleges - had severe limitations. Even if the bishops wanted them - which it is clear most of them do not - the schools' transfer to episcopal control at a time of increasing demands for more participative church structures was not seen as a realistic option.
Similarly, while it was felt that up to now Catholic education had not been diluted by the community school model, there were concerns that any transfer to even partial State ownership could undermine the orders' capacity to provide a distinctive form of schooling.
Four CORI study groups have been looking at future school ownership models, based on the belief that within five to 10 years all Catholic voluntary secondary schools will be owned by trusts on which lay people are heavily represented, and increasingly in the majority.
In the early years they will be nominated by the order (or orders), and thus will not be particularly democratic. There is still a lot of work to be done to overcome the problem of ensuring a "perpetual succession" of people committed to an order's educational ethos while finding more democratic mechanisms for appointing them, says Mr Archer.
The Mercy Sisters in the west are looking at the option of one trust to cover all their schools in that region. The Loreto Sisters are examining a trust to cover their 20 schools nationally.
In north Dublin, a group of orders with similar founding philosophies - including the Christian Brothers, the Mercy and Presentation Sisters, and the De La Salle Brothers - are looking at how 30 of their schools could come together in one geographical area to be owned and run under the terms of an agreed trust.
In the south-east, a group of more disparate orders are working out how they might work together in a similar structure.
The three-year process of internal discussion by the orders will lead to a report to an assembly of their leaders in October. An external consultation, which has already begun, will follow, involving the Department of Education, the bishops, the unions and the parents.
However, even at the end of this lengthy process there is no certainty that all the orders will sign up. "Don't expect the Jesuits to move out of Clongowes," one well informed order source said.