HUNGARY’S centre-right Fidesz party is bidding for unprecedented political domination in tomorrow’s second round of a general election, on promises to revive the economy and halt the rise of ultra-nationalists.
Fidesz appears poised to secure the two-thirds of seats in parliament that it requires to change the constitution and key laws – the first time any government would have held such power in post-communist Hungary.
The party dominated the first round of voting a fortnight ago, when the ruling Socialists limped home a distant second and barely ahead of the coming force in Hungarian politics, the far-right Jobbik party that blames many of Hungary’s woes on a corrupt elite and the Roma minority.
Analysts say Fidesz needs to secure at least 48 of the 57 constituencies involved in tomorrow’s run-off to secure a so-called super-majority. After the first round, it was leading in 56 of them.
Fidesz has been vague about how it will run the economy once in power, but leader and premier-designate Viktor Orban has pledged to cut taxes, red tape and graft in a bid to kickstart the economy and return it to growth.
The Socialists’ popularity was destroyed by a series of scandals and the economic crisis that forced Hungary to agree a €20 billion emergency loan from international lenders, in exchange for a pledge to push through painful costcutting reforms.
Economic hardship also fuelled social tension in Hungary and bolstered support for Jobbik, which intends to crack down on what it calls “Gypsy crime” and abuse of the benefit system by Roma. Its strong showing in the election – when it won seats in parliament for the first time – irked liberals in Hungary and abroad, who have decried a recent rise in violent attacks on Roma.
“We all have to work so that within the EU, populist, xenophobia, radical, nationalist, anti-European positions have as little support as possible,” said Spain’s state secretary for European affairs, Diego López, speaking for the European presidency.
Mr Orban said the best way to combat extremism was to give Fidesz as strong a mandate as possible to fundamentally reform Hungary and reduce a real unemployment level he claimed was between 16 and 20 per cent.
“This is a political and economic land mine,” said Mr Orban, who was prime minister from 1998 to 2002. “If the unemployment rate remains this high, we cannot expect Hungary to remain a moderate, predictable democracy in the long run.”
Janos Martonyi, the man expected to be Hungary’s next foreign minister, said the Fidesz government would seek to renegotiate the terms of its loan deal with the EU and the International Monetary Fund “as soon as possible”.
Fidesz is expected to request agreement on a higher budget deficit, giving it more freedom to spend and lower taxes. But given its reputation for fiscal opacity and indiscipline, such a request could worry investors who want Hungary to adhere to tough spending plans.
In a bid to stop Fidesz securing two-thirds of seats in parliament, the Socialists have withdrawn candidates from some districts to help boost local support for the party that is in fourth place nationally, the liberal and green Politics Can Be Different group (LMP).
“We do not do this to favour the LMP,” said Socialist chairwoman Ildiko Lendvai. “We do this to stop Viktor Orban from doing anything he wants without any kind of democratic control.”
But experts say such efforts appear doomed. “Only some kind of miracle can prevent Fidesz winning a two-thirds majority,” said analyst Peter Kreko.