Candidates with past likely to be elected on present policies

The field of candidates running in the North Belfast constituency must be creating a record of sorts - it includes two men convicted…

The field of candidates running in the North Belfast constituency must be creating a record of sorts - it includes two men convicted of murder, John White of the UDP and Billy Hutchinson of the PUP, and convicted IRA bomber Gerry Kelly.

Both Billy Hutchinson and Gerry Kelly are practically certain to be elected. On the ground in loyalist north Belfast, 42-year-old Hutchinson faces no questions about his past. He is a respected community worker and city councillor.

He canvasses on small streets where red, white and blue bunting hangs from every lamp-post, already in place for the Twelfth of July. Close by is the "peaceline", and tricolours, strategically placed on the tallest buildings, peep over the top of the high wall. Such walls are all over north Belfast, dividing staunchly loyalist and republican areas.

Hutchinson is challenged only once, by a man who says he voted No because he doesn't agree with prisoner releases. When Hutchinson says they would be getting out anyway, the response is: "What about the Shankill bomber? He shouldn't be getting out."

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Hutchinson was convicted of the UVF killing of two Catholic workmen, Michael Loughran and Edward Morgan, in Belfast in 1974. John White was convicted of the 1973 double killing of SDLP Senator Paddy Wilson, a founder-member of the party, and a woman friend. The two were stabbed to death and the killings were admitted by the UFF. Gerry Kelly was sentenced to life imprisonment for his part in the 1973 bomb attacks on the Old Bailey and New Scotland Yard in London.

Meanwhile, in the New Lodge, a strong Sinn Fein area, the two SDLP candidates are pleased with the reaction they are getting. Alban Maginness, who has just completed his year as the first nationalist Lord Mayor of Belfast, is running along with Martin Morgan. Maginness has had a very high profile over the past year and it is making a difference. A barrister by profession, he was widely praised for his work as Lord Mayor. There will be a fierce battle in this constituency between the SDLP and Sinn Fein for a third nationalist seat, as Kelly and Maginness are assured of getting elected. The parties were neck and neck in percentage terms in both the Westminster and Forum elections.

In the Forum elections however, when there were five seats, Sinn Fein managed to get much closer to winning a second seat with 19 per cent of the vote than the SDLP did with 18.54 per cent. In the end it lost out by just 98 votes to the DUP. The contest for the last seat is likely to be equally close this time.

Martin Morgan, who has been a councillor for five years, believes his record of getting involved in issues on the ground will help him defeat Sinn Fein's Martina McIlkenny. He was badly beaten by the RUC in January when he tried to intervene in disturbances between loyalist and nationalist residents in the Whitewell area. The incident was widely reported.

Morgan (31) has also been outspoken in his opposition to the Tour of the North Orange parade, which takes place on June 19th. Nationalist residents are objecting to the march going through their areas. The parade is unlikely to have a big impact on the nationalist vote, but if it is re-routed the DUP vote could increase.

Sinn Fein's Martina McIlkenny has also been associated with the Tour of the North issue. She is well known in Sinn Fein circles but has never been elected before. She initially spoke out against the Belfast Agreement but changed her mind and voted for it at the special ardfheis. If she got elected ahead of Morgan, it would be a huge disappointment for the SDLP.

The possibility of unionists taking four seats cannot be entirely ruled out. The UUP will definitely win one seat and Billy Hutchinson should get elected. Nigel Dodds says the DUP could repeat its Forum performance of taking two seats. He believes that at least 55 per cent of unionists in the constituency voted against the Agreement. If the DUP vote holds or increases, the party could be fighting for the last seat with Sinn Fein and the SDLP. It will all depend on transfers.

The Alliance Party candidate, Mr Glyn Roberts, well known for his work with the group Families Against Intimidation and Terror (FAIT), is hoping to benefit from transfers from pro-agreement parties.

Constituency: North Antrim. Candidates: Sam McAughtry (Lab), Peter Emerson (Green), David Browne (UUP), Fred Cobain (UUP), Nigel Dodds (DUP), Eric Smyth (DUP), Alban Maginness (SDLP), Martin Morgan (SDLP), Gerry Kelly (Sinn Fein), Martina McIlkenny (Sinn Fein), Billy Hutchinson (PUP), Glyn Roberts (Alliance), John White (UDP), Stephen Cooper (UKUP), William Agnew (UU), Steven Doran (WP), Dolores Quinn (Ind NCC), Kevin Blair (NLP).

Westminster election: UUP 51.81 per cent; SDLP 20.39 per cent; Sinn Fein 20.20 per cent; Alliance 5.36 per cent; Green Party 1.30 per cent. In the Forum election in 1996, the UUP got 17.16 per cent; the DUP 19.24 per cent; and the PUP 9.34 per cent.