BRAZIL: With as many as 21 political parties in Brazil's congress, whoever wins the presidential race faces a big headache, writes Tom Hennigan in São Paulo
The presidency of Brazil is the biggest prize in South American politics, but a quick look at the make-up of the country's new congress is almost enough to make one feel sorry for the eventual winner of this month's presidential election.
At the start of the month, voters narrowed the presidential race down to two candidates - President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and main opposition candidate Geraldo Alckmin - and will decide between them in a second round on October 29th.
The most likely winner remains President Lula, who has increased his lead over Mr Alckmin since the first round to 20 percentage points, according to polls. A survey published yesterday by the Datafolha polling firm showed President Lula, Brazil's first working-class president who has huge support among the country's poor, would win 60 per cent.
The first round of voting also saw voters elect a new 513- member congress, with which the eventual winner of the presidential race will have to work closely in order to get legislation passed. That is likely to prove a constant headache.
In the congressional race no one party even managed to win one-fifth of the seats, never mind a majority. The new congress will be the unruly home of 21 political parties in which neither of the two main blocs backing the presidential candidates will be able to form a simple majority.
The biggest party answers to neither candidate. The Democratic Movement of Brazil won 89 seats or just over 17 per cent of the total and is well versed in extracting concessions from presidents for its support.
This constant scrap for votes is a recipe for scandal. One of the most obvious ways for a president to build a majority in congress is to use the massive patronage system at his disposal.
Congressional votes are traded for appointments to state bodies where smaller "parties for hire" spy opportunities for doing deals with suppliers.
President Lula's corruption nightmare of last year came about because an official from one of the smaller "parties for hire" in his coalition was caught using his appointment to the state-run postal service to funnel bribes to his party's coffers.
The subsequent fall-out revealed that President Lula's administration had gone well beyond this traditional practice and in an effort to solidify its support had placed dozens of deputies on a secret monthly retainer, illegally funded by public monies.
Such practices, along with the inherently venal nature of a body that likes to mollycoddle itself beyond all measure of its actual worth, means the congress is held in low esteem by most Brazilians.
The roots of its fragmentation lie in the voting system.
In Ireland, voters have long understood that smaller parties and independents stand a better chance of getting elected in five-seater constituencies.
So imagine what can happen in a 70-seat constituency with an electorate of more than 28 million voters, choosing from more than 1,000 candidates.
Welcome to São Paulo, Brazil's biggest constituency.
In Brazil constituencies are based on its 26 states and the federal district. Seats are shared out using a combination of first past the post and overall party strength to decide who represents it.
With so many seats and candidates in each district, votes are spread thin on the ground and fringe candidates with high profiles are often able to top the poll with less than 5 per cent of the vote.
The result is that almost a quarter of the new congress will be made up of smaller and fringe parties.
Only seven of the 21 parties that secured representation in this month's election won enough votes across Brazil to pass the threshold set by authorities in order for parties to secure recognition in the chamber.
If this ruling is enforced - a big if in Brazil - it means almost a quarter of deputies will be essentially left without a party. They will be allowed to take their seats but the parties they were elected to represent will not be recognised.
Many of these deputies are expected to abandon the party they were recently elected to represent and join one of the bigger seven, fuelling an already common but much despised practice.
Patience with congress is running out. Many incumbents were dumped by voters, especially those involved in one of the various corruption scandals of the last four years.
The big parties and the two presidential candidates have seized on the public mood and are talking of a new push to reform the legislature in the coming year, starting with efforts to prevent deputies skipping from one party to another and even of making them more accountable to voters by having them represent smaller districts.
The trick, of course, is pushing such a reform through the congress.