WORLD VIEW: The Spanish Prime Minister, José María Aznar, is not used to having to explain himself, much less to having to apologise. When he told the nation recently on prime-time TV that "it is possible that the government has made some mistakes" in its handling of the oil-spill in Galicia, he probably thought he was making a big concession.
But it may not be enough to save him, or his government, from a fast-rising tide of public anger over its bizarrely laid-back approach to this disaster. His admission is far more likely to be seen as much too little, much too late, as the news from Galicia gets worse by the day. From the outset, until it was simply impossible to dissemble any longer, spokesmen from Mr Aznar's centre-right Partido Popular insisted there was no crisis, and acted - or rather failed to act - accordingly.
On November 16th, the day on which fuel oil from the foundering Prestige began to reach Galicia's world-class fisheries and shellfish beds, the Minister for Agriculture declared: "We do not fear an ecological catastrophe, nor do we foresee big problems for our marine resources."
Three days later, while the Prestige was finally going down, three key PP politicians, including the ministers for environment and public works, went on long holiday weekends. Meanwhile, it was emerging that only 18,000 metres of barrier material was available to protect 500 km of threatened coastline.
While the scale of the ecological damage remained - and remains - open to debate, the damage to the livelihood of Galicians dependent on the fishing industry was already evident. It must be said that Mr Aznar's administration has moved faster than previous Spanish governments to ensure they receive compensation. But there has been no corresponding dynamism in mobilising resources to limit the impact of the oil spill.
At every point, volunteer groups have been far more pro-active than the state. An impression of paralysis at the centre was compounded by extraordinary insensitivity to the human impact of the crisis.
"We have reacted distantly and coldly, like a surgeon who tells you that you have cancer, and does not even put his arm around you," one disenchanted member of the PP told the Catalan newspaper La Vanguardia. Even columnists in Mr Aznar's media heartland, the conservative ABC newspaper, have started lamenting the government's "suicidal tendencies".
Empathy has never been the strong suit of the distinctly wooden Mr Aznar, and his coldness is compounded by Olympian disdain for his critics. Those who attacked the government, he said at one stage, were "making a stupid mistake". He kept referring to the crisis as though it were an act of God, something which could neither have been prevented nor, apparently, much ameliorated.
However, his critics point out that such a disaster was predictable, from Galicia's grim experience with fuel tankers, but that no new protective measures had been taken. Worse, the PP's austerity policies, coupled with an ideological determination to privatise, actually left the coastline less protected than previously.
Mr Aznar only began to change tack when a record number of angry Galicians, including many conservatives, launched unprecedented street protests against the government's failure to act.
The PP leader said he "shared the feelings" of the demonstrators. It was as though he still did not realise that he was the target of their anger.
He then refused to attend a parliamentary debate with the opposition, in which the Socialist Party's great white hope, Mr José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, scored strongly against the deputy prime minister, Mr Mariano Rajoy.
Mr Aznar finally tried to rally his troops with an appearance in parliament. He chose attack as the best means of defence, accusing Mr Zapatero of opportunistically manipulating the misery of Galicia to undermine the government. But he may have miscalculated the public's mood by attempting to redirect its anger towards the Socialist Party. His extraordinary suggestion that the socialists' criticisms were more damaging to Spain than the oil-spill itself will hardly have convinced his own party faithful, let alone a broader audience.
His best hope is that the socialists themselves, whose relentless attacks on the government in recent days have not been models of statesmanship, will confirm a widespread view in Spain that each party is as bad as the other. Mr Aznar's backbenchers, however, did him no favours when they walked out of a parliamentary session rather than listen to socialist accusations this week. Spanish democracy, to say nothing of the economy and ecology of Galicia, will be badly served if the level of political debate on this crisis does not improve.
The PP seemed almost unsinkable when Mr Aznar was re-elected with an absolute majority in March 2000. The Socialist Party, discredited by association with financial scandals and anti-terrorist death squads, was on the ropes. Mr Aznar had made the PP seem like the natural Spanish party of government, and won esteem as a statesman abroad. His strong ministerial team was economically successful, and he won cross-party support for a controversial tough line - within the law - against ETA in particular and Basque nationalism in general.
This year, however, the PP's support has started to slip. The party has begun to sound less consensual, and more stridently right-wing. A major financial scandal, poorly handled relations with the unions and universities, rising unemployment and house prices have all pushed the party down in opinion polls, and given new impetus to a Socialist Party at least superficially renovated under the leadership of Mr Zapatero. Mr Aznar himself has always said that he would not run for a third term in 2004, and a late succession race may further undermine the party's unity. Local elections next May are sharpening the minds of party councillors and regional MPs across the country.
They must all be wishing that the Prestige had never steamed down the coast for Galicia, for more than the obvious reasons.
Every fresh oil slick that slaps up on the shores of that unfortunate region is going to do further damage to the PP's chances of retaining power locally in 2003, and nationally the following year. And Mr Aznar's cherished hope of going on to a top EU position soon after he steps down is also likely to be mired in the same black tide.
Paddy Woodworth's book on Spain and the Basque conflict, Dirty War, Clean Hands, has just been republished in paperback by Yale University Press