Analysts expect Elan to remain in doldrums

Elan's Chief Executive Kelly Martin has said the pharmaceutical company is committed to its two Irish plants and that it would…

Elan's Chief Executive Kelly Martin has said the pharmaceutical company is committed to its two Irish plants and that it would recruit an additional 60 people at Athlone. Mr Martin said Elan has strong cash reserves and a solid revenue base.

The company currently employs 550 people at its Dublin and Athlone plants.

Meanwhile, shares in the company are likely to stay depressed after yesterday's price collapse until the company can convince regulators and investors of the safety of multiple sclerosis (MS) drug Tysabri.

Yesterday Elan and partner company Biogen suspended sales of the much-heralded Tysabri after a patient died from a rare and often fatal infection of the central nervous system.

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The shares of both companies plummeted, for a combined loss in market value of more than $17 billion as of the close.

After falling 70 per cent yesterday Elan shares immediately fell another 49 cents to €6 at the opening of the Irish Stock Exchange this morning. The downward slide continued and at 1:30 pm the shares were down 64 cents at  €5.85, a drop of 10 per cent.

The drug, approved in the United States last November, was widely expected to become the world's leading treatment for multiple sclerosis and an important driver of growth for both Biogen and Elan.

Investment analysts scrambled to revise their ratings of Elan in the aftermath of yesterday's events.

In a revised research note issued this morning, Mr Ian Hunter of Goodbody Stockbrokers said the suspension of Tysabri reduces visibility for Elan going forward, removing as it does Elan's main revenue source for an undefinable time.

Given the lack of information on what has actually caused the activation of the fatal virus and the FDA's current caution of safety data, an investigation is likelty to take months.

Mr Hunter estimates that in a "worst case scenario" where Tysabri has to be withdrawn completely, the value for the remaining company is in the $3.53 to $5.37 range.

"The upside to this is that if these are the only two cases and there is no signs of adverse events in Tysabri monotherapy patients," according to Mr Hunter. A reintroduction of Tysabri for the treatment of MS will give a "considerable lift" to the value of the company, he said.

Goodbodys have reduced their rating in Elan to reduce pending the outcome of the investigation.