Ireland's reputation for pragmatism and problem-solving will be tested to the full during its six-month EU presidency, writes Paul Gillespie
"After nearly 30 years of membership, it should be clear to everyone that the EU is not them: it is us." The Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, made this remark in a speech on June 21st, 2001, welcoming the European Commission president, Mr Romano Prodi, to Dublin after the Nice Treaty was rejected by the electorate. It underlines the abiding problem of identification faced by political leaders when they become intensively involved in EU affairs. They need to justify the time spent away from "domestic" affairs and, in doing so, seek to break down the distinction between those and "foreign" affairs for what is assumed to be a sceptical public.
This is true, but it is not often admitted so candidly. As Mr Ahern went on to say on that occasion: "Even those who realise how much Ireland has benefited from membership sometimes talk about the European Union as if it were something quite separate and remote which existed over beyond in Brussels."
Nevertheless he insisted: "Its institutions are our future. Each of us has a say in every decision. We do not always get our way; there are things which we might want differently - but that is the reality of any democratic relationship."
This is cautionary advice from a leader heading into European Parliament and local elections next June and facing another referendum on the new EU constitutional treaty if and when it is agreed.
For a small state such as Ireland, such identification has been one of the principal merits of the rotating presidencies. That system is set to change in an enlarged European Union, but the Government has set out an ambitious agenda for its six-month term, which will engage its political energies to the full.
As with Ireland's previous five EU presidencies - in 1975, 1979, 1985, 1990 and 1996 - its success will be gauged as much by political skill and flexibility in managing it as by progress made on predetermined agendas. Ireland has a good record and much experience on both counts, with a reputation for pragmatism, consensus-building, problem-solving and focused conduct of foreign affairs. An effective presidency will set an important precedent as the system is reformed to enable more co-operation between successive presidencies.
The priorities, which will be spelled out further this week at meetings with the European Commission in Dublin, range from reviving the stalled talks on the new EU constitutional treaty; overseeing enlargement of the present 15-member Union to 25 on May 1st; holding a summit on economic reforms to make the sluggish European economy more dynamic; helping to promote more co-operation on drug- and people-trafficking by organised criminals; to overseeing far-reaching changes in the EU's handling of foreign and security policies and its active engagement with the rest of the world.
The six Irish presidencies chart Ireland's progress and development within the European communities over the last 31 years. Arguably the most successful achievement has been the merging of Ireland's identity as a nation-state and a member-state.
European integration went with the grain of Irish nationalism, because it enabled this State to diversify its economy, politics and diplomacy away from over-dependence on and over-preoccupation with Britain.
As Mr Douglas Hurd, the then British Foreign Secretary, put it in a speech in Dublin in 1994: "For the Irish, membership was about Ireland's place in history, confirming Ireland's position in Europe as a modern state and its decisive shift away from the embrace of Britain."
His successor, Mr Jack Straw, said in Dublin last month that Ireland and Britain now work in the EU on an "even and equal basis", an impression confirmed by one veteran observer in the audience who said he had never heard a speech on British-Irish relations "so entirely lacking in angularity". Mr Straw pointed out that when Ireland joined the EEC in 1973, Irish GDP was 60 per cent of the European average, while today it is 125 per cent, and through the 1990s Irish economic growth was almost three times the EU average. "Ireland's success has been good for Britain too.Greater prosperity has made our relationship stronger."
A great deal depends on how effectively opportunities arising from EU membership are used domestically. Relative success in the 1970s and 1990s has to be contrasted with a disastrous 1980s. As we move into the 21st century, Ireland's values and interests are shifting once again.
Mr Ahern admitted in an interview with this newspaper last month that Ireland is now seen differently as a result of its greater prosperity, neo-liberal policies on low taxation, initial rejection of Nice - and these closer relations with a still reluctant or sceptical Britain. He disputes the argument that Ireland is nearer the fringe than the core of the Union and is determined to show it is untrue during the presidency.
How the Government handles the six-month term could frame Ireland's position and role in an enlarged EU for the next decade and more. Ireland is about to become a net contributor and may face choices between a relatively generous approach to funding an enlarged Union or opting for closer relations with a richer, more developed core more committed to political and security integration.
Ireland remains one of the most enthusiastic member-states. The latest Eurobarometer poll shows for the first time less than a majority - 48 per cent - of the EU population as a whole saying membership of it is a good thing, compared to 15 per cent saying it a bad thing and 31 per cent that it is neither good nor bad. This reflects a current pessimistic economic mood throughout the EU. In contrast, the Irish figures are 73, 6 and 15 per cent respectively, while Ireland is at the top of the list of those believing they have benefited from membership.
Although confidence in the EU overall is down, EU institutions still score higher than national ones in most member-states. Those trusting political parties in Ireland are 22 per cent compared to 67 per cent tending not to. The figures for the Government are 31/59 and for the Oireachtas 34/55, whereas for the EU they are 53/27 and for the United Nations 62/19. These positive public attitudes will underwrite and bolster the Government's approach to the presidency. There will be considerable political purchase in handling it well, including international feedback from its major set pieces. But opinion research also makes it clear that, while public attitudes are positive, they are not accompanied by a similar level of commitment and active engagement. That showed up in the complacent first Nice campaign of 2001, when rejection of the treaty on a very low turnout gave the political establishment one if its greatest shocks since independence. It took a major effort to turn it around in the October 2002 referendum.
Only a bare 50 per cent of Irish people express any degree of European identity in these polls, with 47 per cent opting for an "Irish only" response. So the argument that "the EU is not them: it is us" has a long way to go before easy assumptions can be made about the outcome of a referendum on an EU constitution, even if it is agreed during Ireland's EU presidency over the next six months.