It is now almost three years since Bertie Ahern set out his strategy for dealing with the abortion issue. Before the 1997 general election the Fianna Fail leader pledged that in government his party would "not enact legislation on this subject without consulting the people".
There was no commitment to giving the anti-abortion movement its preferred wording for a constitutional referendum. However, Mr Ahern stated that it was "not tenable for people simply to ignore the judgment in the X case, and Fianna Fail in government will have the courage to deal with it".
Despite these fine words indicating a willingness to tackle the issue, the Fianna Fail solution to abortion has primarily been driven by committees and consultations. In opposition before June 1997, the party's Legal and Medical Expert Group reported on the issue.
Then in Government there was the two-year consultative process that led to the publication last September of the Green Paper. The matter was subsequently referred to the All-Party Committee on the Constitution which itself embarked on another consultative process. Next Tuesday the committee will start the latest stage of this consultation process when it begins public hearings on abortion with evidence from medical experts.
The Taoiseach has repeatedly stated his aim of attempting to establish a broad national consensus on the issue and "to try and avoid the divisiveness of the past".
However, the intervention of supporters of the militant Youth Defence group at the recent Fianna Fail ardfheis should have sent a message very clearly to Mr Ahern - there will never be consensus on the abortion issue. Ultimately, a Government is going to have to make a decision on what to do about abortion.
The Office of National Statistics in London has yet to publish the 1999 figures on the number of Irish women who have had abortions in the UK. However, the figures for the first nine months of last year indicate the continued upward trend. Between January 1st and September 30th, 1999, some 4,621 women who gave Irish addresses had abortions in England and Wales. In the same period for the previous years the comparable figures were 4,006 in 1997 and 4,473 in 1998.
The scale of the human tragedy is evident from the fact that the 1999 figure is equivalent to 11.3 per cent of all births in Ireland last year.
It is against this background that the last three years of deliberations have to be judged. How long more Mr Ahern and his colleagues can long-finger the issue is unclear. Indeed, the Government will in all likelihood have abortion back on its agenda in the early autumn when the all-party committee issues its report.
It is a moot point whether the committee will be in a position to recommend any response, which has not already been open to the Government to act upon.
The membership of the committee, chaired by the Fianna Fail TD, Mr Brian Lenihan, is as divided on abortion as the population as a whole. It will not recommend a form of wording for another referendum. The members will probably whittle down the seven options which were set out in the Green Paper on Abortion and then advise the Government on the two or three options that are politically attainable.
Following the evidence this week from the medical experts, the committee will hear from those organisations and individuals who favour option one in the Green Paper, a constitutional ban on abortion. Those supporting alternative solutions will attend the final phase of the public hearings
It is a pity that the voters will not be able to evaluate the merits of every case as the proceedings, while public, will not be televised. Nevertheless, the one advantage of the hearings will be to convey very clearly the message that consensus on abortion is simply not attainable.
That was very evident from the submissions made to the committee and reported in The Irish Times last month.
Organisations such as the ProLife Campaign and the Catholic Bishops' Conference will only be satisfied with a constitutional referendum that prohibits abortion in the Republic. The PLC argues that this is the only "just and workable solution".
Groups such as the Adelaide Hospital Society advocate alternative responses including legislation to regulate abortion in the circumstances defined by the X case.
The British Pregnancy and Advisory Service which performed abortions procedures on 2,504 Irish women in 1998 has advocated abortion services being provided in the Republic. The reality of the lives behind the abortion issue is clear in its submission to the all-party committee:
"It would clearly be better for these women if they could access abortion services in their own country. The women, who come to BPAS for abortion, are not amoral, feckless or degenerate. They are normal women who have considered their position carefully and know they must live with their decisions".
One option open to the Government would be to give all sides their favoured option with a multi-choice referendum. Voters would be asked to choose between a prohibition, a liberal regime or some clearly defined middle-ground position.
This course would be made easier by the Taoiseach's commitment to offering a constitutional referendum that would also be accompanied by the heads of the legislation to be enacted if the referendum was accepted. This would be similar to what happened in the divorce referendum. Certainly when all the consultations are concluded, it will be Mr Ahern who will eventually have to decide on what exactly the people will once again vote on in another abortion referendum.