LESS than three months after re electing President Boris Yeltsin, Russia is again plunged into political uncertainty as it turns out that the nation has returned a very sick man to the Kremlin.
Doctors will meet this week to decide if and when Mr Yeltsin (65) should have a heart bypass operation. But already politicians are jockeying for position, sensing the possibility of a new presidential race far sooner than they expected. Ordinary Russians, many of whom have not received wages for months, are in despair that their economic problems will ever be solved while the political situation remains so unstable.
In retrospect, Russians should have been worried on July 3rd, the day of the second round of the election, when Mr Yeltsin failed to appear before the world cameras to cast his gown ballot at his usual polling station in Moscow and voted instead at the country sanitorium where he convalesced from two mild heart attacks last year. But, fearing a Communist victory and the chaos that might bring if attempts were made to reverse Mr Yeltsin's reforms, the majority of voters chose to believe an official statement that the incumbent president had a sore throat and endorsed him for a second term.
Gradually the truth has trickled out. Over the summer, aides explained Mr Yeltsin's absence from public view, even at key moments, such as when Chechen rebels overran Grozny in August, by saying he was suffering from "colossal weariness" after the election campaign.
Earlier this month Mr Yeltsin said he wanted to put an end to the secrecy surrounding his health and admitted he needed bypass surgery to improve the blood flow to his heart.
Doctors had advised him, he said, that he could only lead a passive life without the operation. Since passivity did not suit him, he would submit to the surgeon's knife for an operation which in most cases enables the patient to be active again.
Compared with the outright lies told about the health of past Soviet leaders, such as Leonid Brezhnev, this amounted to astonishing glasnost (frankness) but seemingly it was not the full truth. Last Friday one of Mr Yeltsin's doctors, Sergei Mironov, suggested his patient had problems with organs other than his heart, renewing speculation that drink may have taken its toll on the President's liver.
And over the weekend, another doctor, Professor Renat Akchurin, said he believed Mr Yeltsin had actually suffered' a third heart attack just before the election in July, which might mean he was too weak to survive surgery.
For reasons of national pride a Russian, probably Dr Akchurin, will lead the operation if it goes ahead, but by inviting outside consultants, including the pioneering US surgeon, Michael DeBakey, the Kremlin has effectively admitted that it needs foreign expertise. The doctors are expected to meet tomorrow or on Thursday to decide how to proceed. "If the risks are too high," said Dr Akchurin, "no one will want to take the chance. A surgeon does not jump off a plane without a parachute."
In a move to prevent a power struggle, Mr Yeltsin has issued a decree which will make his Prime Minister, Mr Viktor Chernomyrdin, acting president with control over the nuclear button during the operation, if it indeed takes place. Under the constitution, Mr Chernomyrdin, who himself survived a heart bypass operation some years ago, would also act as head of state if Mr Yeltsin could not have the operation and was incapacitated or died. But this would be a temporary measure and fresh elections would have to be held.
Mr Chernomyrdin, a former 15 industry bureaucrat whose moderation reassures the West but whose image as a "fat cat" repels many poor Russians, would almost certainly be a candidate. Which is why he has been lukewarm about the success of his rival, the National Security Supremo, Gen Alexander Lebed, in halting the fighting in Chechnya and offering new initiatives for a long term settlement in the region.
Another candidate, of course, would be Gennady Zyuganov, the Communist leader who Mr Yeltsin defeated in July. Last weekend Mr Zyuganov effectively launched a new election campaign when he said that Mr Yeltsin had deceived the voters about his ability to rule and that the Communists were now best placed to take the Kremlin.
But the head of Mr Yeltsin's administration, Anatoly Chubais, warned politicians not to jump the gun. "Those starting into their presidential campaign will quickly discover that they have made a false start," he said.
"Those who leaped from the mark will have to return to the starting line, heads cast down under the intense glare of popularly elected president Boris Yeltsin."