IrelandAnalysis

Irish population rising quickly but policy slow to keep pace in many key areas

Immigration of 149,200 during year, the highest since 2008 when thousands, mainly from eastern Europe, arrived in State before economy crashed

Emigration from Ireland is high — more than 69,000 left during the year, the highest figure since 2015. Photograph: Dara MacDónaill
Emigration from Ireland is high — more than 69,000 left during the year, the highest figure since 2015. Photograph: Dara MacDónaill
Cliff Taylor's picture
Cliff Taylor
Tue Aug 27 2024 - 18:13

In round numbers, the Irish population has risen by about 100,000 people in each of the past three years, a level of increase far in advance of what was anticipated in national planning up to recently.

This reflects in part strong economic growth which is encouraging people to come here to work — and also a jump in migration from Ukraine following the Russian invasion in February 2022. These latest population figures from the Central Statistics Office underline why housing and social services such as health, education and childcare are now under such pressure — and why immigration is now such a hot-button political issue. The 5.38 million figure is significantly above more recent Government estimates, leaving policy running to catch up in many key areas.

Ireland’s population is rising for two reasons. The first is that, while the population is ageing, the number of births still exceeded deaths by some 19,400. This accounted for about a fifth of the total increase of 98,700 in the 12 months to April 2024.

The second is that the number of people coming to live here continues to greatly exceed the numbers leaving, though both are big numbers. This accounted for the remaining four-fifths of the increase.

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There were 149,200 immigrants during the year, the highest since 2008 when thousands, mainly from eastern Europe, were coming to work here before the economy crashed. Some 30,000 were returning Irish citizens, 27,000 were from other EU countries and 5,400 were from the UK. The remaining 86,800 were from other countries — many from countries such as Brazil are now coming here to work, while this number was also swollen by those fleeing Ukraine.

[ CSO records ‘strong outward flow’ to Australia with 10,600 people moving there from Ireland ]

Emigration from Ireland is also high — more than 69,000 left during the year, the highest figure since 2015. Close to 35,000 of these were Irish people. Putting some figures behind the anecdotal evidence, about 10,600 people left Ireland for Australia, up from 4,700 the previous year.

[ Almost 70,000 emigrated from Ireland in the last year ]

The excess of immigration over emigration — so-called net migration — comes to close to 80,000. Since 1951, net migration was only higher in 2007 when it was more than 100,000 people.

The level of population increase is now running well in advance of the 2018 estimates on which national planning was based — the so-called National Planning Framework, which is now being updated. Combined with slow delivery in areas like housing and infrastructure, this is the reason why there is such pressure on accommodation and public services.

[ Immigration into Ireland hits 17-year high as emigration also rises ]

In part, this reflects much stronger growth in the economy than had been anticipated, with the recovery since 2015 driven by huge inflows of foreign direct investment, which in turn has created well-paid employment, attracting people to come to live and work here.

About one in five jobs are now filled by foreign nationals — or close to one in four in areas such as the health service. The influx of Ukrainian refugees has added significantly to immigrant numbers over the past few years, many of them now also working in a jobs market which remains close to capacity.

Coping with this rise in the population through faster provision of housing, other infrastructure such as water and energy and better public services is now Ireland’s key economic and social challenge. Unless the State speeds up its efforts significantly, future economic growth will come under threat, while meeting climate targets also requires huge infrastructural spending. The resulting social issues are also, of course, fuelling the debate over immigration.

Ireland is facing the problems of unexpected economic success at the same time as an influx of migrants and asylum seekers from Ukraine and elsewhere. This complicated mix will frame the key issues in the forthcoming general election.