There will be a need for up to 6,800 more inpatient beds in acute public hospitals by 2040, to cater for the increasing and ageing population, a new report has found.
The report, published by the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), investigates capacity in public hospitals over the next 15 years.
Ireland’s population is projected to increase from 5.3 million in 2023 to between 5.9 and 6.3 million by 2040, with the range reflecting differing assumptions on future migration trends, the ESRI said.
Importantly, the number of people aged 65 years and over will increase from one in seven of the population in 2023 to one in five by 2040.
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“This age group are particularly high users of hospital services, accounting for over 60 per cent of inpatient bed days in 2023,” the ESRI said.
Consequently, requirements for an additional 650 to 950 day patient beds by 2040 are projected, which reflects growth of between 25 and 37 per cent.
There are also projections for an additional 4,400 to 6,800 inpatient beds being required by 2040, growth of between 40 and 60 per cent.
The report did not examine regional demand and capacity requirements, with HSE regional level analysis currently under way, which will be published separately later this year.
The ESRI also examined demand for services, which forecast attendances at emergency departments will grow from 1.6 million in 2023 to between 2 and 2.1 million by 2040, growth of between 20 and 27 per cent.
Outpatient department attendances are projected to grow from 4.6 million in 2023 to between 5.5 and 5.9 million by 2040, growth of between 21 and 28 per cent.
Day patient discharges are projected to grow from 1.2 million in 2023 to between 1.5 and 1.6 million by 2040, growth of between 25 and 37 per cent.
Inpatient discharges are forecast to grow from 650,000 in 2023 to between 800,000 and 900,000 by 2040, growth of between 22 and 39 per cent.
Inpatient bed days are projected to increase from 3.9 million in 2023 to between 5.1 and 6 million in 2040, growth of between 32 and 55 per cent.
Dr Aoife Brick, senior research officer at the ESRI and lead author of the report, said the findings highlight “significant future growth in demand for public acute hospital services, driven primarily by population growth and ageing”.
“The report offers policymakers evidence on the scale of service expansion needed to meet future demand,” she added.
Minister for Health Jennifer Carroll MacNeill said the report from the ESRI will assist the department in “ensuring our health system evolves to meet the needs of our changing population”.
