Screenwriter

Only 362 days until the Oscars, writes DONALD CLARKE.

The red carpet is being aired. The jewels are being sourced. The presenters are polishing their quips. Yes, with only 362 days to go to before the Oscar ceremony, anticipation is rife as to which among the narrowing field of contenders will take the big prize.

The bookies have long ceased to take bets on the Best Actress race. As the 2009 campaign ploughed on, voters were constantly reminded that Meryl Streep had failed to win a statuette for a quarter of a century, and her turn as Julia Childs, weird American

TV chef, in Nora Ephron's Julie & Juliasatisfies all the requirements for an Oscar triumph. It's a real life person with an odd accent played by an overlooked trooper. Start carving Meryl's name on the Oscar now.

The Best Actor race is harder to call, but Viggo Mortensen is all dirtied up in The Road, John Hillcoat's version of the Cormac McCarthy novel. And, in Rob Marshall's Nine, Daniel Day Lewis gets to both sing and, well, be Daniel Day Lewis. Both men should have speeches ready.

What of the Best Picture race? There are, now, only a few serious runners left in the chase, but it would be wrong to suggest that the competition is over. With the Slumdog Millionaireaberration a distant memory, Oscarologists are rubbing their chins in the direction of middle-brow historical epics, lengthy, prestige biopics and adaptations of fat novels or worthy stage shows.

Michael Mann's Public Enemies, in which Johnny Depp plays John Dillinger, has many supporters, but, released way back in July and a tad too violent for many Academy members, that fine film looks set to become this year's Dark Knight(remember that). Loved by movie fans, it will be largely ignored by Oscar voters.

Peter Jackson's The Lovely Boneshas many of the characteristics of an Oscar winner. It's based on a fatuous middle-brow novel. It's bum- numbingly long. It's set in the past. Expect some gongs.

Terrence Malick's Tree of Life, in which a boy grows up to be Sean Penn in the Midwest of the 1950s, is long, epic and beautiful to look at, but it might be too good to win the Best Picture prize.

Paul Greengrass's Green Zone(life in occupied Baghdad) and Steven Soderbergh's The Informant(Matt Damon infiltrates the agriculture industry) have many supporters. The films are, however, a tad politically sensitive for a body that prefers to acknowledge campaigns that took place several decades in the past.

No. The bookies are right to acknowledge Nineas the favourite. It's released in December. It's based on a classy stage show – Maury Yeston's musical version of Fellini's 8 1/2and it stars a gaggle of Oscar- winners (Day Lewis, Marion Cotillard, Penelope Cruz, Sophia Loren, Nicole Kidman, Judi Dench). Put your money down before the odds shrink to an unbackable extent.

What's that you say? Screenwriter hasn't seen any of these films? He doesn't know if they're actually any good? Yeah. Like that makes a difference. We're talking about a body that awarded its best film prize to A Beautiful Mind, for Pete's sake.

The predictions stand.