AS Sinn Fein faces its 90th ardfheis this weekend, the republican movement confronts a question that goes to the very core of its existence to proceed along the constitutional path or resume the ways of war.

We are either witnessing the end of the latest period of republican militancy or we are on the brink of a campaign that could plunge Ireland, and possibly Britain, into a bloody cycle of unfathomable duration. Some believe a full scale return to violence by the IRA could lead to a brief gory span in which it would be pretty much annihilated and Sinn Fein expelled to the outer regions of political isolation.

The republican movement is at a fork in the road. But those who hope this ard fheis might focus on the internal debate said to be raging within the organisation are likely to be disappointed. Republicans who are unimpressed by the peace process - and they are many - are unlikely to want to wash the family linen in public and the Sinn Fein president, Gerry Adams, can expect to have his leadership endorsed and reaffirmed.

Blame will be apportioned tomorrow and Sunday in the Ambassador Cinema, Dublin, but none is likely to fall on the leadership for its handling of the peace process. Instead, the British government, unionists and, to a significant degree, the Taoiseach, Mr Bruton, will be the targets of the republicans' censure.

The atmosphere at this year's ardfheis will be far less optimistic than last year in the Mansion House. On that occasion, just six months into the ceasefire, delegates were upbeat at the prospects of a quick entry to all party talks and the negotiation of "an inclusive settlement".

NOBODY was investigating what this settlement entailed but the euphoria that marked the IRA ceasefire was still evident. With time still on their side, there was no real urgency, at that early stage, to closely examine how their aims could be achieved in this process.

Washington 3, or decommissioning of weapons as a precondition to talks, had not emerged as an issue and the idea of elections as a gateway to negotiations would have provoked laughter. Of course, Albert Reynolds, the man whom grass root republicans could trust, was out of office but there were strong hopes that the so called pan nationalist front of Sinn Fein, the SDLP and the Government would hold together.

The formation of this alliance of nationalist opinion had been a cornerstone in the IRA's decision to call a ceasefire in August 1994. The theory was that, with a sympathetic US administration alongside, this nationalist bloc could force the British government to do things it might not otherwise relish doing.

This weekend, Sinn Fein delegates will no doubt again express their regret at the political passing of Albert Reynolds and the arrival of the "cabinet from hell", as one republican phrased it. (Dick Spring is excluded from the worst rebukes). The days of batting for Sinn Fein are clearly over in Government Buildings now that the IRA has broken its ceasefire.

HOWEVER, the passage of time, the IRA's return to bombing and its political repercussions are combining to force republicans to concentrate on where they are going.

Confused and angry over the position in which they find themselves, they realise they are in a virtual no win situation; they can return to the military campaign or pursue the political route, which offers a series of messy compromises rather than a clear cut settlement.

One thing is certain, however. The all party talks route must lead to the ultimate acceptance of an arrangement that falls far short of the republican movement's raison d'etre - a British withdrawal and a united Ireland. The Sinn Fein leadership has always refused to articulate what compromises will be countenanced and what will not.

In an interview in the Belfast Telegraph on Tuesday, Sinn Fein Councillor Pat McGeown, who almost died in the 1981 hunger strike, echoed the classic leadership response when asked what republicans would be prepared to give.

"We are in a pre negotiating situation so I'm not going to sit here and say what I would give any more than any unionist is going to sit here and say what they would give. That happens when we are locked in together and come out of that with a package. Then we can say it isn't everything that I want but it's the best possible - deal that I'm getting," he added.

As good Catholics are required to make blind acts of faith on many issues, so good republicans are committed to taking their leadership's - strategy on trust. However, questions are now being asked that republicans were loath to raise before.

Though his authority remains assured as leader, Mr Adams faces criticism for not conducting sufficient discussions among the grassroots. Details of his agreement with the SDLP leader, John Hume, were never the subject of grass root debates. The Hume Adams document was read out at the pre ceasefire Letterkenny conference but was never shared with nationalists at large.

GERRY Adams, in the words of one nationalist, "brought republicans through the pain barrier".

He helped them to accept that a united Ireland would not be achieved in a short time but could be forged over the years by means of an interim political system involving real North/South links and major Dublin engagement.

He argued in last year's ardfheis speech that our strategy between now and the ending of partition should be based upon the view that there can be no internal solution but there has to be fundamental change and that, during a transitional phase, there must be maximum democracy". The achievement of equality of treatment for nationalists would "erode" the very reason for the existence of the Northern state.

Gerry Adams apparently lost the argument when the IRA decided to plant a bomb in London last February. He was against the return to violence but the IRA resorted to violence in an effort to push the British government to the table and also to reassure its own rank and file.

There is no clear indication if and when the IRA will reinstate its ceasefire. It will apparently do so when the army council believes it is tactically correct to proceed along that path. What we are witnessing now, in this period of remission, is a game of tactical brinkmanship.

Optimists in the republican movement believe a reinstatement will take place, but not for some time, as the IRA seeks reassurance that no pitfalls lie between now and June 10th, the date for all party talks. The next ceasefire must be for good, as Sinn Fein cannot operate politically if the IRA is on flip flop.

If the IRA returns to a full scale conflict, the move would have serious repercussions for a leadership that advocated the peace process, as well as terrible consequences for ordinary people.

One could reasonably expect the unleashing of a ferocious loyalist backlash and the enactment of much repressive legislation.

Meanwhile, politically, republicans say they feel they are being propelled along a British/unionist trajectory. Even if the hurdle of elections to some form of negotiating body is overcome, the contents of the Mitchell report, which involves decommissioning during negotiations, must be addressed. During the week, republicans were privately saying: "Not an ounce (of Semtex) this side of a settlement."

This weekend, republicans might not want to say too much in public, but they certainly have a lot to think about.