THE situation in Northern Ireland is a bit like the old Charlie Chaplin sketch where he keeps closing one door and the other opens; closes the other and the first opens again.

But nobody's laughing in this instance. The whole community knows outright disaster was only narrowly averted at Drumcree last year. There is also a terrible creeping feeling that Drumcree Three will be upon us soon and that like a Greek tragedy, this time disaster is inevitable.

Nothing should concentrate the mind like impending disaster. People on both sides of the sectarian divide had a chance to look over the abyss last year and there is evidence that community leaders are moving to defuse things.

It is said of unionist politics that nobody ever lost support therein by moving to the right. But there have been some figures in the Orange Order and other parts of the unionist community who have been trying to retreat from the brink - and bring their brethren with them.

There have been attempts at compromise over a number of disputed marches and parades, notably Dromore, Co Tyrone, Dunloy, Co Antrim, and Belfast's Ormeau Road.

The most high-profile gesture has come, not from Orangemen, but from the Apprentice Boys, who resolutely turned away from conflict last Monday morning when they wheeled away from the police line on the Ormeau Bridge and boarded a bus for the main march of the day at Killyleagh, Co Down.

Although less well-publicised, this spirit of conciliation and compromise has also been emerging at senior level in the Orange Order. The result is a furious row. The Spirit of Drumcree faction sees itself in a role like that of Winston Churchill, standing up to the Neville Chamberlain-type appeasers who would sell Ulster out.

There is much tension and nervousness. The atmosphere is not relieved by the impending Westminster election, continuing IRA violence and the near-threadbare state of the loyalist ceasefire.

SENIOR Orange Order sources confessed there were indeed "deep divisions and tensions". But they said this was not something that had arisen overnight: the Order was a "very broad church" encompassing virtually every shade of Protestantism and current disagreements were being exacerbated by a latent tension between fundamentalists and mainstream Protestants.

Moderate Orangemen say their efforts to cool the marching season are being obstructed by a coalition of fundamentalist Protestants and hardline loyalists.

The Spirit of Drumcree is estimated to have about 1,500 supporters, but moderates point out this is only a small fraction of an estimated 50,000 active Orangemen. But they appear to be the most vigorous element and their flying-picket approach contrasts with Orangeism's general staidness.

Expulsion has been mooted as a means of dealing with this dissenting minority, although the procedure is tortuous. Nevertheless, sources said it was likely there would be disciplinary proceedings under the "Constitution, Laws and Ordinances of the Grand Orange Lodge of Ireland" because the dissidents had cast aside the rules.

Each dissident would have to be dealt with individually: it was unlikely mass expulsions would be carried out by, for example, outlawing membership of the Spirit of Drumcree faction.

The spokesman for the Spirit of Drumcree, Mr Joel Patton, is confident of resisting expulsion because, as he said this week: "Basically my stand is a principled stand whilst theirs is a position taken because of fear and lack of backbone."

Senior Orange sources said the moderates would do everything possible to avert trouble during the marching season but said it was a "two-way process". They complained there had been very little by way of reciprocation from some of the nationalist residents' groups.

The response of Mr Gerard Rice, spokesman for nationalist residents in the Lower Ormeau, to the actions of the Apprentice Boys last Monday was described as "not exactly encouraging". A senior Orangeman said: "There has got to be a bit of give-and-take on both sides.

Mr Rice disputes this interpretation. He described the action of the Apprentice Boys in standing up to militant loyalists as very courageous, but added: "Gestures such as not rioting with the RUC are hard to respond to." He said he would like to facilitate the Apprentice Boys in speaking to local nationalists, coming to the community and putting their case for marching on the Ormeau Road".

Elsewhere, the burning of Orange halls and the vicious arson attack on the homes of Mr Patton and others have not made the moderates' task easier.

It is said a lot of Orangemen are now unsure. The notion of having to seek consent from nationalists to "walk the Queen's highway" is repugnant to the Orange outlook, although there is still said to be a significant element in the Order which is prepared to be pragmatic. But, as one observer put it: "If any kind of tacit arrangement is worked out, it will be denounced by somebody."

There are reports and rumours of work proceeding behind the scenes, as far as possible from media scrutiny. The Mediation Network is said to have been a useful intermediary in difficult situations.

One of the problems is, of course, that the marching season goes on so long and there are so many of these parades. The total has been estimated at 3,000, the vast majority of them by Orangemen. Only a handful of these are contentious, but they can blow a society apart. One leading unionist said about Drumcree: "It will all be in the choreography."