The last comparable opinion poll in mid-June showed Fianna Fail at its lowest level of support since the general election of June 1997, and the ratings of the Tanaiste, Ms Harney, in particular, and the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, also down.
The general background which contributed to this was the reaction of the electorate to the nomination of Mr Hugh O'Flaherty to the European Investment Bank, the publication of the respective inquiries by the two main parties, and the publication of the May inflation figure of 5.2 per cent.
Before today's poll, the Government and its constituent parties could have expected their ratings to have recovered during the conventional inactive period of the Dail summer recess, which included the adjournment of the Flood and Moriarty tribunals.
Contrary to convention however, the past three months have been characterised by the apparent reluctance of the EIB board of directors to ratify the O'Flaherty nomination; by Mr O'Flaherty's eventual elimination of himself for the position, and by the controversy regarding the nature of alleged overtures to Fine Gael TD Mr Jim Mitchell.
The rate of inflation has remained the main economic story, with many commentators indicating a year-end figure of the order of 6 per cent.
The net result has been a further drop of five points in Government satisfaction from 48 per cent to 43 per cent, to a position whereby a majority of those expressing an opinion are now dissatisfied with the Government's performance.
Mr Ahern's standing as Taoiseach has also dropped by nine points to 55 per cent - the first time his ratings have dipped below 60 per cent since May 1999, when the electorate was particularly critical of the Government's handling of the Sheedy affair.
Ms Harney's rating as Tanaiste has suffered a further downturn, by four points to 42 per cent, her lowest rating since she assumed office in June 1997. Fianna Fail core support has dropped two points to 34 per cent, and is now down six points since April; Fine Gael is up three to 17 per cent, while support for Labour and all other parties is relatively stable.
However, the undecided figure of 25 per cent is the highest for more than four years and very likely reflects continued disillusion with the political establishment.
Applying the conventional conversion criteria, the net support figures are Fianna Fail 45 per cent, Fine Gael 22 per cent, Labour 14 per cent, PDs 3 per cent, Green Party 4 per cent, Sinn Fein 5 per cent and Others 7 per cent.
However, when the new MRBI formula, designed to counteract the increasing low levels of election turnout and the overstatement of opinion poll support for Fianna Fail is applied, the final revised figures are: Fianna Fail 40 per cent; Fine Gael 24 per cent; Labour 17 per cent; PDs 3 per cent; Green Party 4 per cent; Sinn Fein 5 per cent; Others 7 per cent.
Finally, in the June opinion poll, 68 per cent believed the Government was wrong to nominate Mr O'Flaherty as a vice-president of the EIB and 61 per cent of Fianna Fail voters agreed.
Today, 77 per cent believe the Government has been damaged by its handling of the O'Flaherty nomination and 78 per cent of Fianna Fail voters and 98 per cent of those of the PDs continue to agree. Standing back from the figures, the two relevant Government parties have a lot of ground to make up, and the calling of the next election is certainly not on the immediate agenda. Neither of the Government parties has the required confidence of the bulk of its supporters, and the success or otherwise of the leaders' efforts to advance this will become evident in the opinion polls over the winter and early spring.
Revelations from the resumed tribunals will continue to present formidable challenges, and while the Government public relations machine continues to claim the political controversies are in the past, the crucial criterion is whether the electorate feels the same. The figures provide strong evidence this is not so.
In two respects, the methodology used in this survey differed from the procedure normally applied in the Irish Times/MRBI poll series. The seven political questions were positioned at the end of what was a much more extensive political questionnaire rather than at the beginning, while interviewing extended over the period 11th-22nd September, rather than over just one day.
Jack Jones is chairman of the Market Research Bureau of Ireland
