Your business week: Ryanair, ESRI conference on ‘Irish miracle’
Euro zone consumer confidence flash, Global Funds Conference and German PPI
Ryanair: Among a number of airlines whose stocks rose on the back of the Brexit extension. Photograph: Paul Faith/AFP/Getty
When it finally came, Michael O’Leary’s decision to step down sent shockwaves through the industry – but that was his horse racing operation. On Monday, attention switches back to business when Ryanair issues its full year results. In this, there will be far, far less in the way of surprises.
In recent times, the low fare sector has been affected most by passenger numbers, rising fuel prices and Brexit denting UK consumer demand. Much of those issues remain – indeed last month Ryanair was among a number of airlines whose stocks rose on the back of the Brexit extension, allowing passengers in the UK to book holidays without fear of disruption. Such issues are likely to feed into cautious outlooks in the sector.
In a note ahead of Monday’s results, Davy said nothing has changed in the Ryanair investment case, based as it is on growth capability, cost superiority and cash generation.
“It will be a challenge, as always, for Ryanair to provide FY guidance at this time of year, given the lack of visibility on yields but doubly so given uncertainty on the [Boeing 737] MAX,” it said.
Ryanair has the largest order book of Boeing 737 Max 8s and was due to begin taking delivery of the first of up to 200 aircraft early this year. Goodbody downgraded its outlook on the airline following the MAX grounding earlier this year.
Davy said that, after two profit warnings last year, it expects FY 2019 net profit to be towards the lower end of the €1 to 1.1 billion and FY 2020 guidance to be cautious.
Results: Greencore, Cranswick, First Derivatives, UDG Healthcare,Tiffany, Home Depot.
Indicators: Euro zone consumer confidence flash (May); UK industrial trends orders (May).
Meetings: Food to Go Summit (Mansion House, Dublin 2); Retail Retreat and Expo (Citywest Hotel, Saggart, Co Dublin); IPL Plastics agm; Annual Pan-European Knowledge Transfer Conference (Ballsbridge Hotel, Dublin 4).
Results: C&C, Marks & Spencer, Analog Devices, Gap.
Indicators: UK inflation (Apr), PPI output and input (Apr), public sector net borrowing (Apr), retail price index (Apr).
Meetings: European Central Bank non-monetary policy meeting; Enterprise Excellence Ireland (Croke Park, Dublin 3); Global Tax Policy Conference (Dublin Castle, Dublin 2); Institute of International and European Affairs event with Professor Nikos Hatziargyriou, chair of European Technology and Innovation Platform For Smart Networks for Energy Transition (IIEA, North Great George’s Street, Dublin 1).
Results: Hewlett Packard Enterprises.
Indicators: Irish CSO gender balance in business report; Euro zone composite, services and manufacturing PMI flash (May); German GDP growth rate (Q1), composite, services and manufacturing PMI flash (May), business climate, current conditions and expectations (May); US composite, services and manufacturing PMI flash (May).
Meetings: Global Funds Conference (Convention Centre Dublin); ESRI Seminar “Taxation, Expenditures and the Irish Miracle” (ESRI, Whitaker Square, Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2).
In economic terms, the notion of an “Irish miracle” may jar with some given the turbulence of the State’s recent history and the effects of recession on much of its population, but it is the basis for an anticipated seminar on Thursday.
As part of the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) series, Paul Klein, professor of macroeconomics at Stockholm University, will consider Ireland’s evolution under the title “Taxation, expenditure and the Irish miracle”.
Specifically, the talk will consider how fiscal policy affected the “remarkable rise” of Ireland from one of Western Europe’s poorest to one of its richest countries over the course of a few years.
That may be a history lesson still raw to many, but interestingly it will discuss findings that “the much discussed reductions of business taxes played a significant, but secondary, role in the Irish miracle”.
It will also argue that Ireland’s openness to capital movements played a crucial part – a closed economy would have experienced a much slower and significantly smaller rise in GDP.
Prof Klein has edited both the Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control and the Scandinavian Journal of Economics.
Indicators: UK retail sales (Apr), distributive trades (May).
Meetings: Girls in Tech (GIT) Women in Tech Hackathon (Digital Hub, Roe Lane, Dublin 8); ISME annual lunch (Leopardstown Pavilion, Dublin 18); Energia Family Business Awards (Mansion House, Dublin); Yew Grove REIT agm (William Fry, Grand Canal Square, Dublin 2).