Summer fails to bring warmth for euro

As far as the Americans are concerned, last weekend was the unofficial start of summer

As far as the Americans are concerned, last weekend was the unofficial start of summer. As far as I'm concerned, it might as well be summer in Siberia. Chill winds were whistling through the IFSC on Monday morning although in reality they had as much to do with cool comments about the euro than climatic conditions in Dublin 1.

The euro remains weak - last week it was off 1.6 per cent against the dollar and there was a clatter of comments from eurocrats all saying that this was not a problem. And it's not, in the general sense. It suits Europe to have a weaker currency, since the economies of most euro zone countries are still in the doldrums.

Dr Hans Tietmeyer, outgoing president of the Bundesbank and a member of the ECB governing council, has expressed his concerns by saying that he wouldn't be happy if the euro fell any more.

He feels that the market should be looking at the long-term value of the currency. The market is looking at the long-term value of the euro, which is probably why it has fallen.

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Forecasts for European growth in 1999 show it falling to just more than 2 per cent while the US economy is still growing.

It's impossible to believe that there's a snowball's chance in hell of euro rates going any higher, whereas the Fed has expressed a bias towards tightening rates, with the net result that the dollar is the currency of choice for most people.

Added to the gloom about Europe is the news that Italy doesn't want to stick to its deficit-cutting plans of last year because it is anticipating growth of only 1 per cent.

The Treasury Minister, Guiliano Amato, has vehemently denied that Italy is to blame for the euro's weakness, though it certainly sold off the currency after the news broke that its request to revise its deficit target to 2.4 per cent of GDP from 2.0 per cent of GDP had been granted.

German Chancellor, Gerhard Schroeder, said that this was a one-off decision and that member-states weren't deviating from a strict budgetary course. Mind you, it's hard to stay on course when your economy is in tailspin.

Various EU ministers tried to put a gloss on things, but the euro continues to look weak and there really isn't anything they can say to change things. Once again, intervention is on the table and I can see that there might be an occasional foray into the markets, but it won't make much difference.

Particularly as Wim Duisenberg, President of the European Central Bank, in contrast to his German counterparts, has said that the fall is not unexpected. And, presumably, he doesn't see the need to do anything about it.

It is probably a psychological thing with the Germans - they hated it when the deutschmark weakened against the dollar, even when it was a good idea.

Because Monday was a holiday both in Britain and the US, equity markets were quiet at the start of the week, though certainly not in holiday mood since the general tone was softer.

In fact, the star performer on the European exchanges was a German company, Beate Uhse, which is coyly marketed as an adult entertainment company. Anyway the shares went up 94 per cent after its initial offering and the company has targeted expansion of its retailing network including Internet sales. Even in falling markets there's always something on the up and up so to speak . . .

Back on the home front, the kitchen is now usable again and if they were publicly quoted companies, share prices in the local takeaways would plummet. I actually used the new cooker on Sunday. But I'm also pleased to report that McDonald's came up trumps during the week when I drove through.

This time I didn't have to park while my meal was being prepared. The delays were minimal and only due to the vast numbers of people who were chomping at the bit for a McMeal.

Its Chicken Italiano meal got the thumbs up from me although I probably would've eaten anything I was so hungry. Which is why speed in the drivethru is so important - starving customers are not happy or patient people. The shares have been a disappointment since the high's of $47 (€45) back in March and April, though, having slid by around $8. Not good for the option holders like the CEO but certainly cheaper for the McInvestor.

I thought that Manchester United might have seen more of a pop on the share price following their jammy win last week but despite a couple of high marks on Thursday and Friday they're still trading around £1.90 sterling (€2.92).

The Bloomberg chat pages had lots of comments in German which may or may not have been from Bayern supporters. I don't speak German so I couldn't tell, but it's a great language to sound miserable in and most of the comments looked pretty miserable. Not a good week if you were a Bayern fan and were also short Beate Uhse shares.

Finally, I made a trip down memory lane with a visit to my old school, St Paul's in Greenhills, for the graduation of this year's crop of Tiger Cubs. Quite a number of the teachers who taught me were still there (I never realised how young they must have been) and the school itself has more than doubled in size since my days.

I was chatting to some of the students later and they were completely clued in as to what they wanted to do after their exams - I hadn't a notion when I left, I just knew it had to entail a lot more socialising than I'd managed until then.

Anyway I couldn't help thinking that - despite the holidays and the shorter working days and just about everything we highlight when we complain about teachers - most of them do an outstanding job. The principal of St Paul's runs a school of around 900 pupils and teachers.

It's an organisation which is significantly bigger than many companies for which chief execs are pulling in six-figure salaries plus bonuses. And they probably get freebie trips to football matches too. Sometimes I wonder about our priorities. . .

Sheila O'Flanagan is a fixed-income specialist at NCB Stockbrokers